On Monday morning the draw took place for the Champions League 2016-17 last 16.
Six days previously Celtic’s 9th Champions League group campaign concluded. On paper it equaled the club’s poorest showing so far in world football’s premier club football competition. 3 points from a possible 18 equals the amount gained under Neil Lennon’s leadership in our last foray into the group stages in 2013-14.
The difference this time though is that we suffered 5 defeats in 6 back then as opposed to suffering only 3 on this occasion.
In terms of quality the task facing Celtic this year was a definite increase on last time which also included Barcelona as well as AC Milan and Ajax.
Barca have added Suarez since then as well as regaining and defending their league title not to mention winning another Champion’s League trophy into the bargain.
Manchester City were also far more formidable opposition than the AC Milan team of three years ago. Managed by Pep Guardiola and having spent the GDP of a small country on new players in the summer the Mancunian’s rolled into Glasgow’s east end having recorded 10 straight wins in all competitions and with high expectations of domestic dominance in the world football’s richest domestic competition as well as improving on last season’s semi-final place in the knockout stages of the Champion’s League.
Even Celtic’s most modestly acquitted opponent, Borussia Mönchengladbach, had achieved a 4th place finish in last season’s German Bundesliga, the second highest rated league in the European club football coefficient. Ajax’s Eredivisie currently sits in 13th by comparison.
The start was, of course, disastrous.
The less time spent on the Bhoys humbling in the Nou Camp the better.
But lessons were learned and Celtic went on to record two credible 1-1 draws in the remaining two away fixtures. Considering the previous away record had been one win and a draw in 24 then that’s a fairly marked upturn in away results.
But for all the deserved positives from the club’s return to the big time it has to be countered with a cold hard does of reality.
Whilst the club continues to dominate overwhelmingly on the domestic front and indeed have won all but 1 of 18 domestic fixtures this term and remain unbeaten this is countered by failing to win any of the 6 games in the group stages.
There lies the challenge for next season and to say the least it’s a formidable one.
Just scanning through the teams left in the aforementioned draw this morning and looking at their financial reality as compared to ours is sobering.
In fact in some ways it’s terrifying.
We all know about the almost limitless transfer wealth and financial muscle of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man City , Paris St-Germain, Juventus and Bayern Munich. Of course it’s no surprise that once again they all take their place amongst the last 16 clubs.
But even the more ‘modest’ clubs that have also reached the knockout phase can boast eye watering figures.
Leicester City for example pocketed £93.2 million for winning last season’s English Premier League and there was also the £30 million they received for selling N’Golo Kanté to Chelsea in the summer. They spent just shy of £66 million of that recruiting new players, including £25 million on centre forward Islam Slimani.
Borussia Dortmund laid to rest the ghost of Jurgen Klopp by shipping out several of his old stalwarts and pocketed just under £100 million in transfer fees in doing so.
An almost identical amount went back out the door on new signings including a collective £45 million on German World Cup winners André Schürrle and Mario Götze.
AS Monaco looks like relative paupers having only spent £36 million on new recruits in the last transfer window but considering they only brought in £10 million from sales that’s a net outlay of 26 million quid. But then they are owned by Dmitry Rybolovlev who’s net worth is approximately £6.1 billion, give or take a few hundred million dependent on how the exchange rate winds are blowing.
Portugal’s FC Porto and Benfica spent £25 million and £28 million each on new personnel with the latter taking in a staggering £64 million alone from sales.
But it’s always difficult to factor in the much vaunted transfer dealings of Portuguese teams when you consider their almost unrestricted access to the South American transfer market of Brazil.
What’s clear though is that by comparison Celtic are ultimately operating in a different financial stratosphere to the point where it’s almost absurd.
Indeed as you look across the group stage final placings it’s noticeable that pretty much every club at or near the bottom of the said group with a few exceptions operate in a similar if not identical financial reality to Celtic.
Copenhagen spent £3 million whilst taking in just over £5 million this summer.
They finished 3rd in their group ahead of fellow small spenders Club Brugge and behind the previously mentioned Leicester and Porto.
PSV Eindhoven spent £4.5 million on fees this summer whilst selling £10 million worth of talent and FC Basel’s relative splurge of £12.5 million was only enabled by the £19 million sale of Breel Embolo to Shalke 04. It was also spread over 8 players.
In the end both finished bottom of their respective groups with a meager 2 points.
By and large clearly outlay equates to where you end up and on that basis it is going to be an incredible challenge for Brendan Rodgers to hone a team capable of competing for a possible place in next year’s Last 16. The club has done it 3 times before but as the gap widens financially so does the possibility.
What is heartening though is the financial fruits the club have bore from a return to the group stages.
€2 million was gained just for negotiating the qualifying and play off rounds. Then another €12 million was acquired for group stage qualification and then €1.5 million for achieving 3 draws. Added to that Celtic received 10% of the UK tv pot which raked in a further €14.3m. All in that’s £25 million before factoring in gate receipts etc from match nights. Safe to say it’s almost guaranteed that £30 million will have been eclipsed.
What the club and hopefully Brendan do with this windfall remains to be seen.
As a minimal expectation it ensures ongoing domestic success as well as a platform for future group stage qualification. It’s just not feasible to get into an arms race to go any further than that therefore recruitment will have to remain diligent and overly fruitful. A few more Dembele’s wouldn’t go amiss.
On a broader scale though the real message for Celtic and club’s of a similar financial standing is that new revenue streams will have to be created going forward otherwise great European nights and a seat at the big table will become distant and may even end up being folklore.
With current re-negotiations over Champion’s League group qualification having finished and not surprisingly being now even more weighted towards Europe’s big 4 leagues, the fact is that further review and likely revision is set to take place in a mere four years.
Don’t expect any favours.
The time to act is now. There are avenues of possibility.
Whether the club decide to investigate them is anyone’s guess at this stage.
But sitting idly by and hoping for the best never works out and often leads to withering or worse.
Just look across the city and indeed to Scottish football as a whole for some stark reminders.
Paul Cassidy is a blogger and Celtic fan who thinks the time to act for next’s season’s campaign is now.