One of the consequences of Sundays defeat is that Sevco will play Hibs in the Scottish Cup Final.
The winners of the Scottish Cup gain automatic entry to the Europa League.
This raises an issue I’ve talked about on this site before; Sevco’s eligibility for a European license.
One look at the regulations shows that, quite clearly, they don’t qualify.
Their club cannot publish accounts without a “going concern” warning. They admit to needing “external financing” to make ends meet. They’ve already borrowed from their own directors. If Scottish football had Financial Fair Play regulations Sevco would definitely fall foul of them.
As things stand right now, they do not meet key criteria.
That should make the awarding of a European license an impossibility, if the SFA is following its regulations. From where we stand on Resolution 12, we know full well that there’s no appetite at Hampden for denying income to Ibrox.
Excuses will be made. Regulations will be bent. A license will be awarded.
I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever on that score.
By the time the Scottish Cup final takes place, the SFA will have submitted the licensing list to UEFA. Sevco’s name will be on it. UEFA might still decide not to accept them, but that is highly unlikely. They will lean most heavily towards the SFA’s own recommendation.
That recommendation will be no less than wholehearted.
We’ve seen over the season so far that there’s zero appetite for reform of the SFA.
These regulations could have been made robust, even binding, but the simple fact is that they are still flexible enough that the SFA can wave Sevco through. There’s a reason these regulations are not set in stone, and it’s to allow precisely this scenario.
Sevco is going to depend on European football like no other club in the country.
Without it, their business plan – such as it is – is a complete bust.
Whatever leeway the SFA has in these matters it will use, without question.
Because, really, who’s going to take the decision to deny them?
The SFA board is comprised partly of representatives from both Hibs and Celtic.
Hibs Rob Petrie can’t vote for this because there’s a clear conflict of interest. Peter Lawwell won’t vote for it because if word leaked and we were seen to be orchestrating moves which denied them a place in Europe the outcry from the media would be enormous.
He should do it anyway, to make sure the rules are followed, but he won’t.
SFA reform would have happened already if Celtic were in favour of it.
For reasons known only inside Celtic Park we’ve never pushed a reform agenda, and without leadership that agenda is dead.
Without Petrie and Lawwell leading the opposition there will be no opposition.
Sevco’s license is virtually assured at this point, unless UEFA themselves decide not to ratify it.
That could happen.
It’s not impossible.
But I think it highly unlikely.
When Rangers last qualified for Europe they shouldn’t have been allowed to take part in the competition. We now know that to be a stonewall fact. In the end it didn’t do them much good, because they went out of the Champions League and then the UEFA Cup within weeks of each other, and that precipitated their collapse.
I don’t expect Sevco to last far beyond the first round.
Their squad as it stands right now is nowhere near good enough for European football and there’s no money to bring it up to the required standard.
I also suspect that this time next year Warburton will either be on the brink or already gone; the pressure he’s being put under by the wholly unrealistic expectations of the support and the media is going to crush him. Put money on that.
So whilst the SFA will bend over backwards and give them every assistance they can in the end it’s not going to do them a whole lot of good.
But that’s hardly the point.
The regulations as they are written right now are quite clear on the fact that Sevco ought to be ineligible for a European football license.
That they’ll get it anyway is almost certain. That reform, real reform, is needed is already an established truth of the Scottish game, but for one more season at least holes in the system will be exploited to the full and another team will suffer the financial consequences.
All this, of course, is predicated on Sevco actually winning the Scottish Cup.
But the licensing decision will be taken in advance of the final, and they’ll be green lit prior to the match taking place.
There’s little, or nothing, any of us can do about this except hope that Hibs make it all moot anyway.
I have my doubts about that too.