Between some of the more unrealistic and blindly slavering Sevco fans in the press and amidst the ranks of the club’s own fans, they’ve set a deadly trap for Mark Warburton as he moves towards tomorrow’s game. They are convinced that the last two games flattered Celtic, that at Ibrox things might be different. Indeed, some think things should be different, so that defeat isn’t even to be countenanced far less that the match should end in one.
There is a great irony here; the media itself has been wilfully pushing this line, doubtless with a friendly steer from PR people at Ibrox, to keep morale high amongst their fans. In intelligence ops they call this blowback; when an operation you started ends up creating the very opposite thing from which you intended. The historical example I always find most amusing is the one which led to the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan.
They had never wanted to do that; they wanted the Afghan Communist Party to sort things out in the country without their help. But an internal coup inside that Party gave them pause. The eventual winner wasn’t to their liking, so the KGB spread stories that he was a CIA agent.
Hearing those stories the CIA knew it wasn’t true, but reached out to see if perhaps he wanted to be. The meetings between him and the Americans were a waste of everyone’s time (he had been educated in America but hated them and they could stand him) but the Soviets got wind of them, and convinced them that their false story had been right all along … and the rest is history. They invaded a few weeks later and assassinated him in the process.
Sevco’s efforts to convince the world that those games were closer than they seemed have succeeded in some quarters, enough so that there’s a high level of expectation about tomorrow and their ability to win. Their fans believe that if Warburton picks the right team and the right tactics they’ll get the three points and end our unbeaten run.
So the manager is now in an impossible position. He rightly fears trying to play the expansive game these people want. He knows our midfield and defence is stronger than their midfield and forward line; if we keep our discipline and shape that’s not even close. He also knows that such a system will give our pacy front players a dream day at the office.
In short, Warburton knows the potential for a severe beating exists here. The wrong tactics will virtually guarantee one, but he’s trapped in the media narrative his own club – and his own words – have helped to create and which their supporters believe.
Is he smart enough, or courageous enough, to play the only system that can prevent it? Eleven behind the ball? Rely on getting through the 90 minutes, trying to hit on the break? I think he might fancy that, but they’ll never tolerate it. For a start, it runs counter to his so-called football philosophy, honed playing with vastly superior resources against lower league teams. 18 months of that have fixed it in place. He doesn’t have a proper Plan B for a game like this and so trying to play the defensive system I suggested might not necessarily be within his managerial capabilities. To try and improvise it now, on the fly, could be disastrous.
Furthermore, does he even have the personnel? If Wallace and Hill are injured (they’ll both play, I suspect) who does he put in their place? Some of their defenders haven’t featured in months. Is this really the right time to be throwing them in there?
There are no easy solutions, in spite of what their fans might believe (or want to believe). The man is facing difficult decisions whilst Brendan’s are much simpler. This is a game we don’t have to win, and one which they do. That forces Warburton to try certain things even without the media and fan pressure. He will be feeling it.
Just as I’m about to publish this, I notice Paul67 over on CQN has been having similar thoughts. He’s also raised some other issues which I’m going to pick up on, as I believe they are highly interesting. Stay tuned for that one. We live in interesting times.
