Whoever is in the Celtic squad when we take to foreign fields for the Champions League qualifiers, we’re facing a task that although relatively straightforward on paper has amongst its games a number of potential banana skins.
But with respect to the teams involved, if we do our business promptly and well there’s no reason we can’t go into those ties better prepared than we’ve ever been for a quest to reach the Groups. We’ll be seeded at every turn, which is decent enough, but this campaign looks set to begin without us having lost any key players, which gives us continuity and stability.
When Brendan took over, there was natural concern that it might take his squad too long to get up to speed. I don’t think many of us expected Champions League qualification last season. There were too many unknowns. Lincoln Red Imps suggested we were grossly unprepared. Astana gave us a scare, especially at Celtic Park. The team soared against Hapoel at home, but came back to Earth in Israel and got through as a result of some shrewd tactical moves.
And there we were. We’d made it.
Making it this year, with everyone knowing his role and everyone at the top of their game, should be easier. In theory. But football matches are not played on the chalkboard where theories play out. To go through will be tough, and no mistake.
The first round for us – which is actually the second qualifying round – should be straightforward enough, and should represent no major threat. But the trouble is, even in last season’s campaign we all thought that about the match in Gibraltar. There’s no way we can take it easy and assume that the first qualifier will be easy, and that would be the case whether Jonny Hayes started on the right hand side or Edison Cavani.
But there are no real teams in there to fear; only Dundalk may prove a surprise package after their exploits last season when their run in Europe was frankly astounding and but for a few lapses late in games would have been even more impressive.
Interestingly, we could well end up traveling to Linfield for that round which I’m sure would guarantee an interesting time if not a particularly challenging one.
The teams available to us in that round are the champions from nations like Ireland, Macedonia, Finland, Bosnia, Luxembourg, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Andorra, Georgia, Latvia, Malta and of course Gibraltar. Yes, we could heading back out to face the Red Imps all over again, a prospect that would be less worrisome as simply bloody boring.
It’s the second series of games – the 3rd Qualifying Round – which provides some tastier encounters, and I would argue that if we get through that we might even feel fairly confident of making it to the Groups themselves, because their we’ll face one of the following sides; Astana, Partizan Belgrade, NK Rijeka (Croatia), Rosenborg, Sheriff Tiraspol (Moldova), Hapoel Beer Sheva, Slavia Prague, FH Hafnarfjardar (Iceland) or Viitorul Constanta (Romania.)
There are a number of potentially dicey encounters in there, and we’ll have to play well to go through, whoever we get. Even the Moldovans and Icelandic teams are no mugs, and little needs to be written about Astana or Hapoel, although we’re better prepared and readier to acquit ourselves in those matches than we would have been last season.
The final round to navigate, providing that the seeds win their ties in the previous round, gives us a limited number of choices; we can get BATE Borisov, APOEL Nicosia, NK Maribor and Quarabag. There’s another possible opponent who’s name isn’t 100% clear at the moment; it looks like a league who’s winner is still undecided.
But with some proper signings and the marshalling of our resources there’s a very good chance that this Celtic side will progress. We should be confident of beating those sides when it comes right down to it, and booking our place in the Groups themselves.
There things look a little less sure; there’s talk of us winding up in the third pot, which would be a tremendous boost to the club. But it looks unlikely, and the reason is that for it to happen three teams would need to drop out of the following sides; Liverpool, Sevilla, Olympiakos, Ajax, Dynamo Kiev and Napoli.
Dynamo Kiev and Ajax very well might; they are in the “non-Champions” section and would face a tougher passage through to the Groups. They will also play two qualifying rounds to get there. The calibre of opposition they could meet is easily capable of beating them. Olympiakos face exactly the same journey to the Groups as we do, and could slip, but it seems improbable.
It’s difficult to see Liverpool, Sevilla or Napoli losing their way and failing to make it; as it stands they would face sides from the following; Viktoria Plzen, CSKA Moscow, Brugge, Hoffenheim and Sporting Lisbon. I’d suggest that at least one would have to fall to give us a chance.
The Groups themselves are one Hell of a challenge, but because of the vagaries of the competition this year there are opportunities. From Pot 4 the ideal group would be either Spartak Moscow or Shatkhar Donetsk from Pot 1, realistically Porto from Pot 2 and Basle, Olympiakos or Anderlecht from Pot 3. From a Pot 3 start, clearly the teams to avoid from Pot 4 if we wanted the best possible chance would be Feyenoord and RB Leipzig. One would have said Roma but in the event we’re in Pot 3 they’ll have moved up with us.
The passage won’t be easy – it never is – but it isn’t terrifying. There’s no reason why we can’t look forward to it with some optimism … even if getting Barcelona again feels kind of inevitable already.
The original post contained a factual error in relation to the fifth team in the 4th Qualifying Round. It won’t, of course, be Nice or any of the three sides in the Champions Pot. Further research suggests it may well be a Polish side. Certainly there’s a gap in the published version of that pot, which I misread somehow as someone dropping from the Champions Pot into it, but on further examination looks like it’s an undecided title race. Apologies for any confusion caused and thanks to all the people who helpfully pointed it out.