Anyone who was relying on the odds in the bookies to give them a hint of who the next manager was likely to be will have gotten whiplash this past week.
As my friend Paddy Sinat, over at Vital Celtic, keeps a close eye on these things I don’t have to.
But even reading his articles every day gives you a sense of the way they change their lists like the weather.
If Scottish football was an investible commodity, we’ve proved that just a few rumours could push the price of the shares up or down. Internet investors would make a fortune on the way things change around here with such rapidity.
I love following this through the bookies odds.
They are far and away the least reliable metric here, but a lot of folk believe there is some special knowledge to be gained from watching how they trend.
There is actually a little truth to this; my advice, unless you’re a gambler who does fancy a bet on this or someone who thinks they have actual insider knowledge, that you watch for the moment when the numbers turn decisively.
When Keane moved to 2/5 the other day a few folks I know thought that had to mean something; it’s a small shift in the big picture, and one that just means a few quid has gone on the outcome.
If this were real, or if the bookies themselves had inside info, you’d see a much bigger swing … you’d be looking at 1/7 or 1/8 and finally the kind of shift we saw on the night before Rodgers left, a shift to 1/20 or thereabouts which is basically a done deal.
In short, unless the odds are so long that any bet you make would be worthless, don’t believe that any shift in the betting patterns really changes anything.
Keane has fallen in the running as money changes, on account of another wave of rumours, to Eddie Howe.
It doesn’t mean Howe will be boss any more than it guarantees that we’re safe from Roy Keane!
To me that one is very much alive, although obviously I’d like to believe that the rise of Howe back to the favourite’s seat does signify that there’s activity in that direction.
Howe is one of the top candidates for this job. Clearly, I would not be crying into my beer if he was to get the gig. With Keane, I certainly would be.
As much as anything else, this swirl of stories keeps us guessing and keeps things interesting.
I do study the odds, waiting to see that Rodgers lift shift which confirms that things are in progress.
Until it comes though, this is all just further fuel for the rumour machine.