Way back when this season was about to kick off, I had a conversation with my old man where I told him that I’d done some number crunching and thought I had the points total which would win the title.
I told him that if we hit 90 we were home and dry.
I’m going to revise that slightly; I think we still win it if we hit 90.
If we hit 93 we’re nearly certainties.
With twelve games to go, we sit on 63.
We’re 27 short of the first number; that’s nine wins out of the remaining dozen matches. I think we’ll make 90 comfortably. The question is; will that number be enough to make us this season’s champions?
The answer, I think, is yes. But it depends where we get them. if we hit the second number, 93, then we’re home and hosed barring a disaster.
Let’s look at what it would take at this point.
Say we draw at Ibrox and beat them at Celtic Park.
That’s a four point lead with ten games left.
That would also put us on 67 points with 30 up for grabs. We’d need just 23 of them to hit 90. 26 would give us 93 and leave us depending on goal difference if the Ibrox club won every single remaining game.
Provided we can draw at Ibrox and win at home, their margin of error will be close to zero.
They would need to be prefect, whereas we could afford a couple of slips.
I don’t see their record being perfect if out of the next 12 they draw and lose to us … their next 10 games would be fraught with peril and I can’t imagine that they’d come through them all.
Tomorrow we play Dundee; that reduces the number of matches left to eleven. We win at Hibs and then at home to St Mirren and there are nine left. A win at Livingston and we’re eight games left and going to Ibrox.
We’d be on 79 points heading into that. A draw puts us on 80. A win there and you can put green ribbons on the trophy.
At that point, 90 points probably wins us it if we drop points in three of the remaining games, as long as we win the one against them at Celtic Park. With every week that passes we reduce their options a little bit more.
And we need to keep that going.
Of course, there is one thing that dramatically alters the equation here and it’s their own form. They’ve dropped points in their last three away games, and if they do that tomorrow and we win then we’ve got an extra cushion for the rest of the campaign.
We are now in the business end of the season where everything do matters.
Results take on a bigger and bigger significance the near we get to the split.
Looking at the games we have left I am in little doubt that 93 points makes us champions.
Get over that line, and the Ange era has gotten off to the most beautiful start.