I recently picked up a new book, Truss At 10, by the historian Anthony Seldon. Seldon has written biographies of every Prime Minister of the modern age.
People joked with him after Liz Truss resigned, asking if he intended to write one about her. The joke, of course, being that it would be a very short book, given her very short reign.
As it turned out, Seldon said he found the story so complex and the fall so precipitous that the book ended up longer than most expected – over 300 pages. The audio version is 10 hours long, which isn’t bad at all.
I expect to enjoy this book enormously because I genuinely find the subject fascinating. What intrigues me isn’t even the rise – it’s the fall. This book is all about the fall, except for a handful of moments in Truss’s early career, which are important to understand what happened to her once she was in Downing Street. Some of these bits are especially revealing about her overall character.
Truss’s reign was the shortest in prime ministerial history.
Towards the end, as things unravelled at spectacular speed, a national newspaper decided to livestream a picture of her next to a fresh lettuce to see which one would last longer. Historians will record – as Seldon surely has – that the lettuce won.
My sister has long thought that if this site is going to do video, that would be a great way to start. She envisions a framed picture of Clement on one side and a lettuce draped in an orange sash with a wee plastic flute on the other. She thinks a KFC bucket and a fishing rod would be appropriate props as well. The livestream would continue until it’s over and one or the other has survived. My money would be on the lettuce going two in a row.
But actually, the truth is Clement is already in a race – a one-on-one to see who goes quickest. Not with a lettuce, but with another manager: Steven Naismith at Hearts. And I’ve got to be honest; I would be delighted if they both went on the same day, as the game could do without either of them. Although our amusement might be lessened when Clement is no longer in his particular job, I will shed no tears whatsoever when that raging mediocrity at Tynecastle is shown the exit door.
The question of which of the two will last longer is still open for me right now, although I do have a suspicion about who is in the most danger; Clement is.
I mean, Naismith has had a disastrous start to the season, and it will almost certainly get worse the weekend after next. But his start is nothing compared to the complete unravelling Clement is experiencing across the city. After all, Clement has the second-biggest budget in the league and currently sits in fourth place. His side is out of the Champions League, meaning tens of millions of pounds have been wasted. He may or may not have already lost the Ibrox dressing room.
The one thing Naismith does not have is the job security Clement has, thanks to that brand-new deal he signed. Even though it’s only a one-year extension, you better believe there are substantial provisions written into it for his benefit. And I cannot understand why, when he had so long left on his deal, having not won a single game against us last season, and with a start to this season full of problems and the likelihood of a Champions League exit followed by a defeat at Celtic Park, anyone at Ibrox thought offering him a new deal was remotely sensible.
So, while it might seem on the surface that Naismith is less secure in his position than Clement is in his, Clement’s role is larger, and the potential downside is much bigger if he starts to fall apart. He could very easily go first. Hearts fans have lower expectations for their club than the Ibrox board and its fans have for theirs, and we all know that contract terms don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. If things become untenable, they will sack him and take the financial hit.
Looking at the fixture list, other than the game at Celtic Park, the Hearts boss might have a better chance of surviving in the short to medium term than Clement. You look at the away games they’re facing, the European games in front of them, and you can see where this could all completely collapse. There will be no sentimentality because the board over there can’t afford any. There will be no time to balance the team or let the players settle in because if confidence in the manager is gone, every day he stays in the job is another day wasted preparing for the next campaign.
Clement sat there after the Celtic game and talked about how his side would not fully emerge until October. You hear that and think, “You’ll have one foot in the grave by the time that happens.” There comes a point in every Ibrox manager’s tenure when he’s living game by game, thinking every weekend, “Is this the one? Is this the disaster that gives them no choice?”
He also sat at that press conference where nothing that came out of his mouth was anything less than delusional nonsense and said it would be a different game in January, and I cannot imagine a single person in this country who heard that and didn’t think, “You may not be here for that one.”
Of all the statements he has made so far, it may have been the most poorly timed and ill-judged. To talk about January when, by the end of this month, he might be living game to game is absurd.
In the last few weeks, I’ve found myself doing something I never thought I would do – agreeing with people whose judgement is massively flawed.
Kris Boyd, for one, has talked nothing but sense in the last week. Barry Ferguson has acknowledged not only the gap but that it’s not just an on-field gap that can be easily fixed with a couple of signings. But the most surprising of all has been Hugh Keevins.
On the day their club announced the new contract for Clement, he said what is surely obvious to everyone, but nobody else wanted to say: it doesn’t mean a damn thing. It protects Clement, not the club. And it only protects him in terms of guaranteeing a larger payout if they fire him. If things get bad enough, they will do the deed regardless.
Naismith is definitely under pressure and may even be closer to the edge than people at Tynecastle are willing to admit. But after the Celtic game, he will have some breathing space, and he will have time and a set of easier matches to try and put things right.
One of his problems, however, is that Aberdeen is doing well, Dundee United is doing well, and that makes it very difficult for him. Third place is massive for them, and if he looks like he’s floundering, they will cut him loose.
But right now, his survival prospects seem a little better.
It may be marginal, but in the race to the sack, I think Clement edges it right now. He’s the leading contender out of the two. Neither is the leading contender in the league, though. That dubious honour still belongs to David Gray at Hibs, and I would be very surprised if he survives much longer. If you want to put the iceberg lettuce up against him when we return to domestic games, I think there’s a good chance he can’t outlast it.
Clement and Naismith might stumble on a while yet, but ultimately, one of them will fall before the other. Looking at them both and their situations, although Naismith’s position appears more precarious because he doesn’t have a guaranteed long-term deal, I don’t think Clement’s long-term deal offers him the protection others do.
In the end, because the job is bigger and the downside of keeping a failing manager in that job is vastly greater, I think his jackets on a shakier nail.
And there’s one last thing to consider. This will have to weigh heavily on the minds of both boards – at Hearts and at Ibrox. If Naismith goes first and Hearts want an obvious replacement, there’s a very good chance they will move for Derek McInnes. And if McInnes goes there, that closes the door on Ibrox’s most likely replacement for Clement.
So, if either side feels McInnes is the guy they want, they may have to move faster than they would otherwise like. I’m not saying that’s a factor, but if either side – or both – are already thinking about who replaces their boss, McInnes’s name will be on that list.
And at Ibrox, especially, they have to know that it will be easier to prise him out of Rugby Park than it will be to prise him out of Tynecastle. At Tynecastle, he could make himself a king. He might have enough self-belief to walk away from Kilmarnock for that shot, but he wouldn’t walk away from Hearts to go to Ibrox after leaving Kilmarnock first.
This is like a grand strategy game where they have to be thinking two or three moves ahead, which is more than they’ve appeared capable of up until now.
But it all makes sense.
The clock is ticking on both of them, and it won’t take much to push either over the edge. I think both could drop points next weekend. Naismith will almost certainly lose, and lose heavily, at Celtic Park, and Clement may well drop something at Tannadice.
It won’t be the end for either, not straight away, but the starting gun will have been fired, and before long, one of them will be fired too.
The Sack Race ! – Hilarious indeed James even though it once happened to maself drunk on the night shift when the girlfriend fucked off with ma older cousin… (Good lookin Celtic birds are sometimes naughty as well you know) –
If ‘Naiseeeeeee’ is still there when The Scumbos of Swinecastle rock up at Parkhead then you can bet your bottom dollar that they will give Celtic a game for sure, perhaps even more than Sevco did…
But his record v Sevco is simply appalling and if he’s trying to curry favour in that way it’s a false policy if he had any aspirations of plankin his arse in the hot seat at Liebrox for sure…
That said he was on his way to victory there last October until Scottish born Cheats with whistles, flags and monitors intervened to bail out Sevco yet again…
We haven’t gone away or forgotten you know !
We actually need him to do well enough to keep his job and bad enough for the entertainment
I think it’s a question of who’s available. When we batter the semi-skimmed huns I think that’ll be the end for Naismith, the full-fat huns will persevere with Clement all the way to November when they’ll have no choice but to start the expensive ‘new manager is brilliant’ cycle
Seem to remember a comfortable 2-0 victory for hearts at celtic park after a similar start to last season repeated later on at tynie.then went on a 15 game unbeaten run and cruised to 3rd place subsequently.problem so far is trying to blend in 9 new players and havent had a settled formation.
I’d be happy for both to continue for a bit longer. Clement is going to end up full scale Pedro before much longer and is sounding madder by the week, and I enjoy watching/listening to an uncomfortable and clearly edgy Naismith snapping his way through interviews, turning the media muppets against him and hastening his own demise. It’s what might happen after both inevitably get the bullet that is more amusing though – Clement can slink back to Belgium with a bulging bank balance and say he was working with one hand tied behind his back and still get a job in their league. Naismith on the other hand, well his goose could be well and truly cooked. He’d probably get his obligatory 6 months at Kilmarnock as McInnes’ interim replacement and then when he makes a Gareth Hunt of that too and is hounded out by fans who never wanted him anyway, it’s the lower leagues and maybe even straight to the juniors!
I can’t wait to see him managing Kilwinning Rangers…..
Well at least managing Kilwinning would be managing TRUE Rangers Captain !!!
My moderate comments just posted on your current topic seem not to have passed scrutiny as they have not been given an airing.you asked me not to be a stranger in future when you relented on a previous posting.debate is healthy isnt it?was only trying to defend my team and manager after all.
They are on there mate. It just takes a while sometimes.
Haven’t really kept up much on Hearts but there was an interesting article I read yesterday from an ex-Jambo that suggested writing was on the wall last season, something I had no interest in.
Spoke to a jambo colleague of more than 30 years and he said he didn’t think the Jambos would sack Naismith as they may not be able to afford it. That and he had just signed a new contract recently is akin to the rangers position with the Waffler belgique….
Speculation also the rangers hiring guy turned down Shanks late in the window and maybe being made a scapegoat for their bad signings.
The rangers love a scapegoat, beale, Bisgrove, the pope…
I hope the Hunslite get a new man who is not a rangers clone. Look at Aberdeen and their success.
Aw come on ahv eaten too much popcorn already!!!!!!
The longer Le Mannekin Pish stays at Ibokes, the happier I am as he’s a numpty.
Every time they change manager, I worry just slightly that they may find somebody who knows a little bit about football and makes them a little better albeit in the short term. This happened when they jettisoned The Mooch and their results improved. I don’t want them winning even a Cup!
As an aside, what with me being from Leeds, my uncle taught at the school (Roundhay) that Liz Truss bad mouthed as ‘letting pupils down’ (got her to Oxford, so how did it let her down?). He remembers her distinctly… ” A triumph of volume over intellect!” was his description of her. Says it all really?
Gonna nick that Yorkshire Bhoy..
It’ll look good on the Guardian’s comments feature,’ beaten by a lettuce’ as well.
The trouble is, there’s always someone ready to jump into the hot seat whether qualified or not. Truss is an example ( and if you are as politically astute as you think you are you will be aware,or should be that she was a plant to clear the decks for rich Rishi who was too close to all of the covid fiasco and mismanagement and theft to go straight in after Boris).
But ultimately you will only be there for as long as the people will allow you to be, because when the time comes and they are baying for blood, the pawn sitting in the kings chair will be the sacrifice.
Realistically though, it does not worry or concern me who they get to replace Clement when the time comes (not if, but when) as the club as a whole are so so far behind us. And as you alluded to before the hotseat over there is a poisoned challis and the list of sacrificial lambs waiting to jump into it gets smaller and smaller until it’s a nobody, like Truss, an irrelevance even, and that, may be the worst thing yet to come to them.
P.s. if I was a betting man I’d put my money on Naismith going first. Clawing back third place is already waaaaaay beyond him. There are better managers in the league now with better teams. The mannequin will still be standing by the end of the season unless he walks of his own accord. You see, as you spoke about acceptance earlier James, they’ve accepted they cannot change management as and when they please. They’ve (the board that is) accepted it as part of their rebuild.
Poisoned CHALICE, Henrik from A pendant.
Here’s a thought on the Clement contract. Perhaps he was going to walk at the end of the season given the gig wasn’t what he was told it was. The Board knew the chances of getting anyone decent to take it on, given the state they are in, would be difficult. So they offer him an improved contract and he agrees to stay. Works for both parties in the short term and we all know they don’t do anything past that over there.
I think you have called it, Morto.
I’m going to suggest that your sister has a better sense of humour than yourself James, no offence intended,,in the case of Naismyth although he has no love for us I think he’s a decent man as he donated season tickets for the homeless whilst at Everton and believe he helped with the homeless in Glasgow and in my eyes that’s a decent guy.
It will Clements arse that will collapse next weekend if they don’t pick up all 3 points.
As for lasting longer than lettuce I posted that scenario over a week ago.
A wee double at the cream cookies for you Skeletor 1 at ibrox and Skeletor 2 at Tyncastle both gone by before the month of September is out.
I hope David Gray comes good at Hibs. That goal in the Cup Final in 2016 will live long in the memory. A post-match on-field brawl because the Huns couldn’t take a defeat, followed by the (best ever) rendition of Sunshine on Leith. Goosebumps just thinking about it.
If I remember rightly it was reported in the Daily Rectum that the delay in Clement signing up with Sevco was down to his agent making sure that the clauses relating to termination of contract were absolutely watertight in his client’s favour. I think he’s there until he himself decides otherwise.
It’s also worth remembering that McInnes was in the frame before but said no thanks! It was a basket case then and it’s a basket case now, so why would he be so stupid this time?