By now, everyone knows there’s almost certainly going to be a significant drop in the Scottish coefficient, regardless of what happens in this year’s Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League games.
The damage isn’t just looming—it’s inevitable. But the real blow won’t come next season, when even our champions won’t have an automatic spot in the top tournament. No, the real pain will hit the season after, where we could face having to play as many as three qualifiers, with no second spot in the competition for any other Scottish club.
As I said in a previous piece, this is why having the right manager, both domestically and in Europe, is crucial. Rodgers virtually guarantees domestic success, and right now, we cannot afford even the slightest risk of jeopardising our position at home.
The changes to the coefficient are coming, and the damage that could result from not being a Champions League group-stage team would be enormous.
But as bad as next season and the one after might seem, the true Armageddon hits the year after that. Our second-placed team may not even make it to the Europa League.
Just think about that for a moment.
The damage that could be inflicted on the second-placed side—whoever it may be—by having to qualify for the Conference League would be disastrous. The financial rewards in the Conference League are minuscule compared to the Champions League, and a single season could create a gulf so vast it would take years to close.
It’s not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Ibrox club finishes second, we qualify for the Champions League group stages, and they’re stuck at the bottom of Europe’s ladder.
The earnings gap would stretch into the tens of millions in a single season. How would they ever catch up? How could they prevent the same situation from happening the following year? How could they even hope to compete at the top again?
The next two or three years will be critical, not just for Celtic but for all Scottish clubs. For the team that finishes top, the road back to Champions League football will be perilous enough. But for the team that finishes second, even a Europa League spot may be out of reach. The consequences for both clubs in this city will be enormous, far-reaching, and ultimately, defining.
Some people say our club’s strategy is to stay one step ahead of them, but I’ve always believed that idea is foolish for two reasons.
First, it doesn’t benefit us at all if they remain competitive challengers. Should they manage to claw Champions League football away from us, it would weaken us as much as it strengthens them. I doubt anyone at our club wants that. Second, we’re not in control of their destiny. Even if we gave them the breathing space to mount some kind of challenge, the likelihood is they’d self-destruct before reaching any significant heights.
I believe the current gap between the clubs is already too large to bridge. The media and the Ibrox fanbase cling to the belief that it’s possible, but if things pan out over the next two or three years as they appear likely to, what seems like a far-fetched idea now will soon become outright impossible.
We should be looking towards that future and planning accordingly. It’s becoming clearer with every passing day that this is a case of “us or them.”
I cannot put it more plainly than to say it like this; one of these clubs will not exist in its current form ten years from now. That’s as certain as anything in football. The balance of power, as it stands, could either flip dramatically or tilt further in our favour, putting us in a position where we cannot be caught in our lifetimes, barring some freak event.
Could there be radical changes in that time?
Of course, there’s always a chance Scottish football might secure a massive TV deal, levelling the financial playing field and creating a real title challenge. Or maybe some Saudi gazillionaire buys a club here and challenges Financial Fair Play regulations.
But if we’re being real, the most likely scenario is that one club—us—becomes obscenely more wealthy than the rest. And that will widen the gap even further, leaving the Ibrox club and others trailing far behind.
If we win the next three titles and make it back to the Champions League group stage, while they play Conference League football, the gap between our clubs will widen dramatically. A club on six titles in a row, with Champions League money, will have no rival even remotely close to them, and that puts ten in a row in the bag and much else besides.
Well before that point, we’ll have no choice but to put everything into making it on the European stage, knowing that our domestic rivals will be left floundering.
There will always be a club from Ibrox; that much is inevitable. But if these coefficient changes play out as predicted, they will no longer be capable of challenging us in any meaningful way. Their supporters will face a choice: continue to support a club that can only ever hope to be “best of the rest,” or find something else to do on a Saturday afternoon.
That’s their problem, and the answer would define them. We cannot let it define us. Domestically, we cannot afford to lose ground under these circumstances.
And in Europe, we must continue to improve, constantly striving to be better than we are now. We need to be at the top table every year because, in the future, European football might be the only challenge worth a damn.
It’s not quite “adapt or die,” but it’s not far off.
“Their supporters will face a choice: continue to support a club that can only ever hope to be “best of the rest,” or find something else to do on a Saturday afternoon.”
I think if we achieve 10 in a row and more it might actually be to the detriment of our club, i honestly think the majority of the new club fans would throw the towel in so much so the club would completely collapse, their stadium is listed so would like become luxury flats based on Arsenal’s old Highbury model.
If this scenario were to play out, i’d have serious concerns about our support losing interest in the club/game here in Scotland because we only have to look what happened during the time they started over in the lower leagues, the closure of the upper tier wasn’t all down to Ronny Deila’s playing style.
Selling ‘luxury flats’ in Islington is a bit easier than trying to flog them in Edmonton Drive!
Maybe the cooncil/GHA could convert it to pensioners bedsits or a homeless hostel……
Lol, very true.
I’d still put ma 20 stone torso with two jackboots on the throat of Sevco Alfy748…
Because rest assured they’d bloody well do that to us – Nothing more is certain for sure –
Show NO MERCY – And expect none !
The seeds of our coefficient disaster were sown in the 22/23 season. 3.400 points mustered. Secvo managed 4.00(oh how we laughed at their CL performance) Celtic 6.00 Hearts 4.00 Dundee Utd 2.00 and Motherwell 1.50( knocked out by Sligo rovers)
TBH from a coefficient standpoint having ourselves qualify for CL GS and 3 teams in conference league GS wouldn’t be the worst thing that could happen because amassing points in the 3rd tier competition is exactly how nations such as Turkey have improved their ranking.
As the rankings are based on a 5 year cycle you can expect a fair degree of movement between 10th and 17th and it is important to remember the cup winners from nations ranked 1 to 33 currently qualify for the Europa league currently.
Sadly it not only highlights the depth of despair to which our domestic league has sunk in terms of quality but also the depth to which our other teams perform on the European stage and so limits the points contributed to that very co-efficient. I’m not saying that our league is bad to watch as there’s a real competitive combatant element to it as there is indeed in the juniors which is worth a watch particularly when you just can’t get a hold of those restricted away game tickets. But … quality?
It’s nothing that a wee war in this damaged world won’t sort out, as that is the only reason we dine at the top table just now.