The “law of averages” will not help the Ibrox club against Celtic next week.

Yesterday, the Daily Record journalist Michael Gannon wrote a revealing column about Celtic. The main thrust of his argument was that Celtic must get Brendan Rodgers signed to an extended contract as soon as possible. I couldn’t agree more with the central premise because, as most Celtic fans recognise, securing Rodgers on a long-term deal is critical for the club right now.

However, Gannon’s article contained one statement so absurd that it demands a proper response—not just a few dismissive lines, but a proper rebuttal. His claim was about the upcoming game at Ibrox, which he believes the Ibrox club should win—not only because they are playing at home in front of 100% partisan crowd, but because, according to him, “the law of averages” dictates they eventually will.

When I read that, I couldn’t help but laugh at the sheer preposterousness of the assertion. The law of averages now decides who wins football matches? What nonsense is this? Where do these pundits come up with such rubbish?

It’s even more ludicrous than the classic “the form book goes out the window” nonsense, another cliché that gets trotted out ahead of these games. Let’s be honest: when was the last time the form book actually went out the window before one of these fixtures? Maybe Rodgers’ first game back?

More often than not, form decides these games. As for the law of averages? It doesn’t even factor into football, not in the slightest.

In fact, the so-called law of averages is itself a myth.

It’s sometimes referred to as the gambler’s fallacy, the belief that because something hasn’t happened on a long timeline that it is more likely to happen in the future. This is why most bookies are rich and most punters are poor.

So, because the Ibrox club hasn’t beaten us in a while, they have a better chance this time? That’s utter drivel. If Michael Gannon fancies himself a betting man, I’d advise against letting him place a wager for you. He appears to believe in old wives’ tales and absurd superstitions.

To be clear: this game will be won by the better team on the day. The team with attacking intent, a solid plan, and the ability to impose themselves on the opposition will take the points. If that team is Celtic, we’ll leave with them and the title effectively secured, and the trophy delivery date flexible to our choosing.

Sure, you could factor in the possibility of an “honest mistake”—a lingering spectre in Scottish football—but the law of averages? That plays no role here. If we’re the better side, we’ll win, no matter how many prior games we’ve already won. It could be six straight defeats for the Ibrox boss or 20. The outcome won’t hinge on some mythical balancing act.

Honestly, I’m not saying Michael Gannon is a pro-Ibrox stooge peddling pro-Ibrox drivel, but it’s an incredibly daft thing to say and even dumber to believe. If Celtic played East Fife 200 times and won the first 50, would the law of averages dictate that East Fife must win game 51 or 52? Of course not. These games are decided the way they always are: by who has the best players, the best manager, the best plan, and the will to execute it.

A more extreme version of this nonsense is the idea that success in football is cyclical. That’s also false. Teams that dominate don’t suddenly fall from grace because of some mysterious cycle; they either make mistakes or encounter extraordinary circumstances beyond their control.

The Ibrox fans and their cheerleaders in the press would be foolish to assume their club’s eventual rise is inevitable. History shows us that clubs can reach great heights, fall, and never recover. It’s happened before, and it’ll happen again.

They’re lucky no other Scottish club has consistently emerged as a challenger. If an Aberdeen, Hearts, or Hibs were to get their act together and mount a sustained challenge every year, the Ibrox club would find themselves in even deeper trouble than they’re in now—and make no mistake, they’re already in plenty.