Celtic now knows what it – and others – have to do to get us over the Champions League line.

For weeks now, there’s been endless speculation about how many points Celtic will need to qualify from the Champions League group. Yesterday, with games still to play, it was a bit silly to get caught up in the guessing game. We already know how many points we need to get through: more. Specifically, we need a win at home against Young Boys.

As a regular Football Manager player, I’ve wargamed scenarios involving this new league system countless times. One thing that always stood out was how very few qualification scenarios get resolved before the final series of games.

I never expected we’d have clarity before the Young Boys game. That’s when we’ll know where we stand—how many teams can catch us, how many can’t, and whether enough of the chasing pack can actually push us down into the danger zone, potentially ending our tournament.

But let me outlay the simple fact of it in a way no-one can dispute; as it stands, there are six teams in the bottom eight who cannot catch us as things stand. The danger lies in the calibre of teams below us and who still can; PSG and Stuttgart. They finish the night on seven points to our nine. Tell all those talking about a draw at home being enough to guess again.

Here’s the good news though. In order for us to go through on Matchday Seven only three things need to happen; we need to win our game and we need two games to our way, based on the results around us. One of them is already guaranteed; both PSG and Man City are behind us in the Group. They play each other in the next game. Which means that if we win it does not matter who comes out on top of that in fixture; if it’s a draw or a City win then PSG can’t catch us with one game left. If PSG win they leap-frog City with 10 points … and City, stuck on eight, can’t catch us.

That leaves us needing just one game to fall our way for us to be assured a place in the next round; step forward Arsenal vs Zagreb. If the Gunners beat them it’s over and we’re through, if we’ve gotten our three points in the game. PSV, who can still catch us, are sitting on eight points right now; they have Red Star. You expect them to win and move onto 11, one behind us. Likewise, Stuttgart on seven points can move to ten by beating Bratislava. That means they can catch us on the last match-day as well. But by then we should already be through.

The results on the final match-day will determine where we finish in relation to a seeding place. I think we’ll need a point from the final matchday to assure a good one, but permutations wise there are a lot of scenarios which could play out there.

Celtic has had an excellent campaign so far. Securing 12 points would be a fantastic achievement, especially going into the game against Aston Villa, which could become crucial if we want to finish higher in the standings. Winning there would be incredibly tough—but not impossible.

Most fans seem to be enjoying the new tournament format. The final two games are shaping up to be thrilling, with so much still undecided and countless permutations to consider. Those who are complaining about the competition tend to fall into two camps: those whose teams didn’t qualify or those with vested interests in undermining UEFA.

These detractors are loudly claiming that the new system hasn’t worked, that it’s unpopular with fans and unenjoyable for clubs. But that’s nonsense. By and large, people are enjoying it. Clubs are benefiting from more games, greater revenue opportunities, and the chance to face a wider variety of opponents. Fans, meanwhile, are getting big games and fascinating results. The drama of these final matchdays promises to be tremendous for neutrals.

For Celtic, though, the goal is to avoid unnecessary drama. What we want from the Young Boys game is a resounding victory that propels us into the next round, sparing us the tension of sweating over results.

This new Champions League format is the best version we’ve seen yet. As someone who initially predicted that nobody would like it—given its complexity and potential for tough draws—I must admit I’ve changed my tune. I’m already hopeful we’ll qualify for next season and am looking forward to another campaign in this setup, even though there’s still work to do in the current one.

UEFA has mostly got it right with this format, though part of me wonders how six-team groups would have played out. For now, though, it’s best to park those hypothetical discussions. The focus has to be on the next game. Forget about settling for a draw—three points at home should be the only target. Those three points should more than secure our place in the next round.

There are two matchdays left in this year’s group stage, and although I wasn’t looking forward to this format initially, I’ll admit I’ll miss it a bit when it’s over.

What Celtic must do in the final home game is ensure we’ve got the points to extend our journey in this competition. We’re in good shape, but we’re not there yet. Forget talk about a point being enough; we need three. I still think we’ll need them all.