An Ibrox conspiracy theory has picked something up. But it’s Celtic fans who should be interested.

This is going to be a two-part piece. Why two parts? Because I’m fundamentally lazy. There’s an article I’ve been meaning to write for about two weeks, but I kept putting it off. As the days have passed, the urge to finally sit down and get it done has grown stronger as the case for it has. Today, I’m doing it before someone else does because it’s such an obvious topic that someone else will if I don’t.

I did think about folding this article into the one I’ve been procrastinating on, but, as I said, I’m lazy. And here’s the thing about being lazy: I know I’m lazy. So, when I’m being lazy, I punish myself by working harder than I normally would. That’s why one article has become two. On reflection, though, these really are two separate pieces. One is about a conspiracy theory; the other might just be about an actual conspiracy.

Here’s the part that’ll make you laugh: I suspect that if you asked the Ibrox fans which one is the conspiracy and which one is the conspiracy theory, they’d give you the wrong answer. Let me clarify right now: this is the one about the conspiracy theory. As usual, it’s their conspiracy theory, and, as usual, it’s utterly barmy.

They claim to have evidence that officials are working in Celtic’s favour based on the fouls-to-bookings ratio. This isn’t a new idea from them; they’ve pushed it before. This time, however, they believe they’ve got data to back it up. I’ll get into that shortly.

The funny thing is, although this is about their conspiracy theory and not the conspiracy I’ll discuss in the later article, I think their numbers do indicate something suspicious is happening—it’s just not what they think it is.

I feel comfortable calling this a conspiracy theory because, while there may indeed be a conspiracy, it’s not the one they are looking at. At best, they are looking at it the wrong way. Those numbers do suggest something’s going on, but it’s entirely different from what they imagine.

Here’s the gist: Celtic has a big lead in the fouls-to-bookings ratio. Put simply, it takes more fouls for a Celtic player to be booked than for players on any other team in the league. Our count is 9.6 fouls per booking.

The next closest is Kilmarnock, with 6.2. Dundee United has the lowest ratio at 4.7, with the Ibrox club not far behind at 5.2. The Ibrox fans believe this is proof of an “Unseen Hand” working against them. They’ve drawn this conclusion because they’re looking at the issue through the wrong end of the telescope. What I think is that these numbers actually prove something else.

What these stats do highlight is what some of us have been saying for a while: one way referees influence games is by controlling their flow. Look at the stats from our last four home games, where we’ve had around 80% possession. In those matches, we allegedly committed 36 fouls—an average of 9 per game. Nine fouls per game when we’ve had 80% of the ball. And in that time, we received just one yellow card.

The Ibrox fans think this proves bias in our favour.

To me, it suggests something very different: that every time we lose possession, we’re penalised disproportionately for trying to win the ball back. Teams with higher bookings-to-fouls ratios are simply less disciplined and more prone to committing bookable offences. Meanwhile, we’re penalised for smaller infractions, just not to the degree that officials can justify bookings.

If Celtic gets 9 fouls per booking, how many of those fouls are even legitimate? We’re also the only side in the league without a red card this season.

That proves nothing except that our players are disciplined and don’t commit serious offences. But if we’re so disciplined, why do we supposedly commit so many fouls in the first place? Does anyone seriously believe that referees like John Beaton or David Dickinson are doing us favours every week?

What’s really happening here is that officials are interrupting our game every chance they get. They’re halting our momentum whenever possible. If we were being punished at the same rate as the rest of the league, it would create a visible pattern. But the beauty of penalising us for endless little fouls is that unless you’re a stats geek, it doesn’t jump out at you.

I do have a larger article planned about officiating in Scotland, but I’m not delving too deeply into stats. I noticed this pattern a few seasons ago and have examined in on and off but honestly, this season it passed me by.

And here’s where I give credit to the Ibrox fans. They’ve put this data out there for everyone to see, allowing us all to poke and prod at it and draw our own conclusions. Of course, our conclusions will differ massively from theirs, but what’s new? Still, thanks to their effort, we now have something worth keeping an eye on.

With this conspiracy theory out of the way, I can move on to the actual conspiracy. And yes, this time they’re right: a group of people have got together and devised a strategy that’s harmed their club.

They’ve done this deliberately. The kicker? These people work at Hampden. But they’re not creating an injustice. In fact, they’re correcting one.

Photo by Craig Foy/SNS Group via Getty Images

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