There’s an old piece of alleged wisdom in football about the “third-year curse.” It says that the third year for any manager is the hardest—it’s when failure becomes most likely. By then, everyone knows your system, your style of play, and all your little tricks. At that point, you either reinvent yourself and your team or prepare for the worst.
I’ve seen it happen. It does happen, often enough to have earned its reputation. The theory originated in leagues where teams face each other twice a season. Here in Scotland, where teams play each other four times a season, particularly those at the top of the table, it means you’ll be figured out far quicker than in three years unless you’re exceptionally adaptable.
As I mentioned yesterday, at the root of yesterday’s problems is that this was the seventh game between Rodgers and Clement. And Rodgers hasn’t adapted in the way Clement has tried to. Does that mean Clement is a better manager? Of course not. But, as I said, you’d have to be exceptionally naive to face the same manager seven times and fail to learn anything about their methods. Clement has been tweaking his style over those seven games, and it shows.
We’ve played them five times in the last six or seven months. On three of those occasions, they’ve scored three goals against us. On three of those occasions, we’ve scored three goals against them.
Both sides have notched up 3-3 draws twice and won 3-0 once. The other game was a Scottish Cup Final, which we narrowly won with a late goal.
This pattern has led some to conclude there’s not much between the teams. But when you look at the league table, you see the gap. When you look at the trophy haul, you see the difference. When you look at the squads it’s obvious.
Clement’s approach has already been figured out by half the league. That’s why you had the Motherwell manager saying he knew their weaknesses and vulnerabilities. That’s why you saw the St Mirren manager crowing like a triumphant warlord after his side’s game against them just last week.
As per usual, they will draw all the wrong conclusions from yesterday. That’s why we at Celtic cannot afford to do the same.
We’ve struggled to impose ourselves on a team that just isn’t very good. We should have beaten them more comprehensively, more often, and it’s troubling that we haven’t. But I’m tempering my worry because this isn’t an immediate problem. We won’t play them again for months. There’s plenty of time for the manager and players to take stock and learn the lessons that so obviously need to be learned.
The bigger question is whether we’ve become too predictable overall. Against most teams, it won’t matter much. But in Europe, it will. That’s an issue for our in-house thinkers—this is what the management team gets the big bucks for.
Celtic needs to respond emphatically. We need to do good business in the transfer market this month. The manager has been very clear on this and let me repeat what he said for those who think it’s only malcontent fan media types losing their minds over our transfer strategy: it’s better to get deals done early. Yesterday’s result hasn’t changed my thinking on that one bit.
Rodgers is right to talk about the big picture because there is a bigger picture here, one I’ll delve into later. But improvement is required in some areas, and the manager will have to be ruthless in others. If yesterday’s result has influenced his transfer plans, I won’t be entirely surprised.
On the topic of Kieran Tierney, I remain sceptical. I think signing him could swiftly be regretted by everyone involved. If we do sign him, I hope it’s not on a long-term deal. We need to ensure we have an exit route if it turns into a disaster. His injury record raises serious questions, and this feels more like a sentimental decision than a footballing one. That’s not a good enough reason to justify it.
There are undoubtedly many deals being worked on behind the scenes. In a few weeks, we’ll have a better sense of how the squad is shaping up. But we missed an opportunity to record a statement victory over them yesterday and instead, we’re going to endure days of drivel from a media that will gleefully overreact. Ignore all of it. Nothing has fundamentally changed across the city or at Celtic Park.
Talk of ripping it up and starting again, or a mass clear-out of our dressing room, is lunacy. This team needs tweaking in a couple of positions—areas we already knew were problematic. One other position has come into sharp focus again, but that’s no surprise either. We’ve discussed it before and I’ll talk about it later.
The post-mortem into yesterday’s game shouldn’t become ridiculous. The issue is that we have a manager across the city who has figured out how we play and has found an effective counter. That’s a problem.
But if we mix it up, it’s a relatively small one. Their problems remain as large as they were before, and, ironically, Keith Jackson himself has identified how they may have amplified one of them. I’ll cover that in more detail later.
I just cannot get yesterdays game, yes Clement could have learned and made a few tweaks but surely not enough to make Celtic that bad. If it was due to his tweaks, he surely must be a genius!! Celtic did not look interested or willing to run or tackle. I’m 62 and that is the worst Celtic performance I’ve seen for decades, it was very worryingly woeful
Dan – on a different point, you’ll recall the Rapid Vienna debacle in 1984 when we won 3-0 and ordered to replay due to some idiot throwing a bottle or coin. Whilst I don’t believe the SPFL would ever get to the same decision, I can’t believe that one/some of their fans took the risk.
Just very grateful that Engels escaped serious injury. Hopefully lots of badly bruised egos that get treated with hard work and humility.
We also need to be kicking up a stink about our players being assaulted both on and off the field.
The deliberate elbow in Kuhn’s face yesterday was just the latest example of thuggery which has been going on at almost every ground in the country.
They do it because they know we’ll do nothing about it, thus encouraging repeats in the knowledge that they’ll get away with it.
The worst example was from one of McInnes’ players in a Cup Final against Kieran Tierney which required emergency surgery.
Celtic has a duty of care to its staff and the club has thus far been negligent in this duty.
This needs to change.
Would have KT back in a heartbeat, at least he would show no fear like some did yesterday… Khun
Included
Club Brugge has given teams the template to stifle Celtic from building from the back,
they did a very good job of closing us down at Celtic Park in November,
Clement has just copied the format in the last few weeks,
We must have a better Plan B as you say James,
That been said, the whole team were woeful yesterday, absolutely shocking performance.
If we have the league secure before the final derby match then Celtic should only agree to play behind closed doors. We have enough evidence over recent fixtures to show it is not a safe place for our players and staff. Something tells me that Sky and not the SPFL would call the shots…
Scrub that last comment – I want Celtic making demands today of the SPFL to insist on a safe venue for that match. If that means closed doors, closed bottom tiers or nets being installed then so be it.
Nets? Animals should be safely enclosed in cages to protect the human race from their natural and ingrained wild reactions.
Undoubtedly, the thing that rankles most with us, is not the defeat, but the manner in which we weakly succumbed to a very, very average Sevco outfit.
We have no divine right to win any game, let alone every game, but the fact that we feebly yielded, was concerning. It honestly looked as if our team had been partying all night, such was the lethargy and lack of quality!
As I’ve previously said, I fully expected BR to have learnt from their high press/man for man cup final tactics, but we played right into their hands again.
A lot of our play was hugely amateurish and we couldn’t get the basics right.
So when you repeat the same mistakes, you’ll inevitably get the same outcome.
Like every Celtic fan, of course I was disappointed but I firmly believe we shall learn from this and learn well! I have no doubts about that !
It is important to criticise when it is justified, but always ensure there is a perspective, and try to retain a positive mindset, as to where we are in comparison to Ibrokes.
Let us leave the hysteria and moonhowling in Govan, where it belongs.
Meanwhile, the incident with Engels, just reinforces why our security team will never endorse a return to Mordor for any of our fans. The moronic, lowlife scum that throw coins, objects etc at players, officials or fans should be locked up and the stand closed indefinitely.
We have had too many incidents now at the Crumbledome, and it is now time for the authorities to take proper action.
On the subject of KT, it looks like negotiations are ongoing. It could only be considered a positive move if he can play a LARGE amount of games injury free!!!
However, why else would Arsenal let him go ?
We shall see!
Roll on Sunday and in getting yesterday’s huge hangover out of our system !
In Brendan we trust !
Very good comments Gerry – the key question is whether Brendan will learn from this. Unlike you I have my doubts as his career stats do not make good reading in that regard (look how many humpings we took in the CL before some pragmatism was introduced). Brendan is firmly entrenched in his way of thinking and is very much of the “Plan B is to do Plan A better” type school (neither of which is a problem in and of themselves) but if the evidence both historically and currently says that your teams generally get worse and worse the longer you are there then some introspection and acceptance is needed that maybe your thinking is flawed to some extent.
I totally agree that we mustn’t overreact to yesterdays game (the perfect storm came together and winning at Ibrox has never been, and will never be, a foregone conclusion despite what some of our “overly-zealous” fans think) BUT react we must and not simply brush it under the carpet as a one-off/bad day! We need to start being pro-active in how we are going to deal with different strategies designed to overcome us and not simply rely on our collective 11 being better than their collective 11.
We will win the league this year but yesterday was a sharp reminder (not that it should be needed) that we are far from the finished article, that quite a few of the squad are still not of the level required to play Brendan’s preferred style and most importantly that our rivals do have players who can hurt us big time and we shouldn’t be underestimating them!
Spot on with what you have said Woodyiom and I certainly respect your opinion.
Having said that, we all maybe look at the past when judging certain players or managers and I can understand thinking that way with BR.
However, I’m a great believer that we have to focus on the future and what can be done to improve this Celtic team. We’d be burying our heads in the sand if we thought we were close to the finished article, and I’m sure our manager shares those sentiments.
Any football manager that can’t adapt or learn from certain defeats and/or bad performances will not last. This is now where he has to earn his big bucks and negotiate, what will be, a very tricky set of fixtures, both domestically and in Europe, over the next 5-6 weeks!
I believe he has the ability to do so.
I also agree with Kevcelt59, regarding our manager’s post match performances. He has always had that touch of gravitas that the Belgian waffler can only dream about.
We definitely need enforcers in that midfield to fight Sevco…
1) – BRICK 4 BRICK…
2) – BOOT 4 BOOT…
3) – BLADE 4 BLADE…
4) – BOTTLE 4 BOTTLE…
It’s the only way…
Take it to them Brendan…
The way The Irish did to The Brits !!!!
And once again, nothin will be said, or done, about the poisinous, sectarian songbook, loud and clear throughout. All the old despicable favourites dragged out. Same as the cup final and also their Motherwell game. Although yesterday was a different level and worst by far. They even sang their bile at engels, when the guy was lyin on the ground injured with that coin ffs. But never mind. Cannae let a small matter like that interfere with their victory can we eh ?!
Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t feel as down a I would normally after being beaten by THEM. It wasn’t even a close one, it was a pasting, yet I am not as upset as I normally would be immediately afterwards. it’s a strange feeling, a sort of state of limbo and now I am just looking forward to the rest of the season and putting that blip behind us.
Am I being complacent as well?
Another thing ah’ll say in BR”s favor, is although its obviously hurtin the guy like the rest of us, he’s showed humility and honesty in his post match interviews and givin credit tae the other side. Unlike the constant, garbled, bad loser bullshit we get from the ibrox nosferatu, every time he drops points. Confusin the tits aff everybody, includin himself wi his stats, chances and whit seems like, his own made up brand of loony football mathematics, while constantly ignorin the opposin side. Well done BR.
With regard to KT, subject to fitness he would give both a boast and versatility at the back with ability to play left in a three back. He is a high earner at Arsenal and obviously not in Arteta’s plans and with the PSR rules, the top teams need to be mindful of squad costs. Even if fit at Arsenal I don’t think he gets into their starting lineup ahead of the players Arteta has brought in.
1st goal yesterday, Hagi ran PAST Reo and when he scored Reo was 20 yards behind him. I don’t think he managed a single tackle yesterday. Shows no appetite to fight or track back with energy.
He’s dining out on 6 magic appearances, 5 above average appearances and the promises of someone’s who’s all fart and no poo.
Genuinely I’d sell him and Scales in January, give the squad a wake up call.
No room for hangers-on
Scales has been excellent, but in bigger games or again pace he’s found out. I watched him try to pass to Taylor who was 30 yards away but missed by 15 yards, it went out for a throw. Needs to get gone, as does Hatate
James,
You really need to go back and read some of your earlier takes. You wrote the same kind of stuff about Beale before his first win against us. (After 5 attempts and failures when it counted) It’s almost identical—same reaction, same preview. And let’s not forget that Beale did finally beat us and I implore anyone to go and read the aftermath and change some names and it’s identical. ‘Overwhelmed’ ‘chaos’ all the usual stuff. but it was in a meaningless game. The same hysteria followed, even though we’d already won the league, the cup, and had the Scottish Cup final the next week, where we completed the treble.
Since Ange arrived (rebuild) —and then BR Mk 2 (rebuild) with Brendan—the record is clear: a double, a treble, another double, and now the League Cup this season. Compare that to Clement, who has failed every meaningful Celtic test. Don’t forget Rangers were also disastrously dumped out of the Champions League qualifiers under him—another Clement failure that gets conveniently ignored.
You talk about “reality checks” or whatever, but the fact is, some of our own support could use one. The sooner people stop putting so much stock and weight behind any game against them, the better. The reality is, Rangers are not a match for us over the course of a season. I don’t even need to go digging for examples.
Do Barca worry about Espanyol? The huns will always have a scrappers chance. That’s the reality. Did Barca rip it up when we beat them under Lennon? Hyperbolic of course but it’s clearly silly season in here
Clement is like Trump, and the Huns are his tribe. The collateral damage they create? That’s on them. Unfortunately, too many of our fans get caught up in the hysteria, when all you need to do is look at the brass tacks: facts and precedent. Then make a cup of tea and calm down.
It’s a deserved defeat. Nothing more. Get over it.
‘Rangers are dead as dead can be’ –
However Ange, Brendan, Clement And Trump are very much alive…
As are Barca and Espynol…
But as I said – ‘Rangers’ are deed !
As regards Tierney, I normally would be wary of a player with a history of injuries but in Keirans case if he passed a medical and our medics and sports science dept were happy with him i would certainly take a chance on him. At 27 years of age we would be getting a top level player with no transfer fee involved, who would be committed to Celtic over the next 5 or 6 seasons.
With Arsenal he’s had a couple of bad injuries but on the plus side, top class teams like Arsenal don’t rush players back and he’s been given time to recover from those injuries.
If BR wants him that would be enough for me I’m sure he’ll have done a lot of behind the scenes enquiries as to his fitness issues.