There has been a lot of media talk lately about UEFA’s Financial Sustainability Regulations (FSR), particularly about the gap between the Ibrox club and Celtic. I’ve also seen a lot of chatter—though not from mainstream sources—about how Celtic might be on the edge of the 70% squad cost cap if we don’t qualify for the Champions League next season. Some even claim we’d need to make cutbacks in that scenario.
That assertion is nonsense for several reasons. First, while FSR is designed to ensure clubs stay within the limits in real time, there is also a three-year rolling average applied. We are very comfortably within those margins. In fact, we are so far inside them that we could probably afford a Europa League campaign without making any cuts to the budget at all.
If we take the last three years into account, there was only one occasion where we even approached the 70% level. That was back in 2022, before the cap existed. That year, we spent 67% of earnings on salaries, but since there was no cap in place, it didn’t matter. Since then, we have adjusted accordingly:
In 2022–23 (90% cap) our total salary costs stood at 51% of earnings. For 2023–24 (80% cap) our total salary costs stood at 53% of earnings.
So, we have stayed well within the limits, and crucially, we have built enough financial headroom that we could manage a couple of years in the Europa League without issue. That’s even before considering simple solutions like raising ticket prices for some games or selling a major asset—something we usually do anyway.
Now, these figures refer specifically to wages, but they don’t tell the full story.
That’s where the excellent football finance site Game State (on Substack) comes in.
They break things down using UEFA’s actual squad cost formula, which includes wages, player amortisation, impairment, and agents’ fees.
This is the metric UEFA actually looks at.
According to their breakdown, Celtic’s total squad cost for last season was £64 million. With our income sitting at £131 million, that means our squad cost-to-earnings ratio was just 49%—41% under UEFA’s cap of 90% for that year.
For this season, with the cap dropping to 80%, Game State’s estimates (based on first-half financial returns, UEFA prize money, matchday revenue, etc.) suggest that our squad cost ratio will fall even further—to 46%. That’s incredible leeway.
This gives us so much flexibility that even failing to qualify for the Champions League group stage wouldn’t be a disaster in terms of FSR compliance. Of course, I fully expect us to qualify, which would keep us well under the 70% cap for next year and build even more financial security for the years ahead.
The only real scenario where UEFA’s rules could become an issue is in the event of a financial catastrophe—some extreme situation where we had to suddenly spend tens of millions on an emergency project. But even then, UEFA exempts infrastructure spending from the FSR calculations, so something like a stadium expansion wouldn’t count against us. Our three-year rolling average debt is also well below the £60m UEFA limit, meaning it would take an unthinkable disaster for us to fall foul of the rules.
In short, any Ibrox fan clutching at this straw should take a deep breath and move on—because there is nothing to see here. They’re looking at the wrong numbers. They’re looking at the wrong calculations. They don’t understand how this works.
They seem to think that the amount a club spends in a year is equal to what it earns, which is nonsense. FSR doesn’t work that way. It’s about the percentage of earnings spent on squad costs, and on that metric, Celtic is miles within the rules—even with the 70% cap and even over a rolling three-year period.
When Celtic talks about keeping a rainy-day fund in case of a couple of years in the Europa League, that’s about the club’s overall financial health, not UEFA compliance. It would take four or five catastrophic seasons for UEFA’s rules to even become an issue for us.
This is one of the areas where the Celtic board deserves nothing but praise. They keep us so well within the lines that there is almost nothing to worry about. The idea that this board would ever let us get close to breaching the 70% cap is ludicrous.
None of this means Champions League money isn’t important—it absolutely is. The financial rewards are massive, and it makes a huge difference to the club’s long-term ambitions. That’s why we must maintain our squad’s strength and make wise additions this summer. But I fully expect us to qualify again, and if we do, we’ll be even further under the 70% cap for the years ahead.
Of course, there are people who would love to see us struggling financially. They’d love to believe these regulations will hurt us as much as they hurt the Ibrox club. But the simple reality is that we earn far more than they do.
Their wiggle room is tiny compared to ours.
And like most of their other fantasies, this one isn’t going anywhere.
Maintain our squad strength? Did you see our bench on Sunday? I’m afraid the board will get no credit from me for simply doing their job.
It’s good to know that we are on a solid footing financially and are well within the limits imposed by UEFA regarding their fair play constraints. We therefore have the opportunity to push the boat out in the Summer transfer window and we will hopefully do that. If Sundays game told us anything, it was that we are nowhere near good enough just yet to take on the best in Europe, we have flaws and repairs that need proper mending.
Johnny I love your optimism concerning our board,push the boat out in summer? Very unlikely until we’ve sold some one first,as for our last 2 big push the boat out signings,21 million pounds worth, listening on the radio I couldn’t even tell if Engels was on the pitch and the same with Idah when he comes on but as for the board splashing out I hope you’re right and we splash out on some more heavy weight midfielders and defensive players that way we won’t get pushed aside so easily by teams that high press like sevco done AGAIN.our team in general seems very lightweight and we have been crying out for a strong holding midfielder in the mould of broony, Lennon, wanyama etc ,but we’ll wait and see what the summer transfer window produces, remember our board are really just concerned about staying slightly ahead of sevco but even that doesn’t look right considering the last 3 games against them.
I’m in total agreement with your analysis of our present players Ivenogotwan, we are far too soft all over the park. I am not a big Engels fan and I am still waiting for him to supposedly adapt and settle in? Another Broonie would be fantastic, but will there ever be another enforcer of that calibre who is available anywhere? As regards the Summer transfer window, we can only hope and dream and yes, I prefer to be optimistic, that keeps me going.
The problem in the past 3 games against the Hun isn’t our squad, it is down to our manager and coaches refusing to change our approach when coming up against their high press. Our player stick rigidly to passing their way out through the press even when it clearly isn’t working. Sometimes when you’re hemmed in your own third of the field, surely it sensible to hit a long pass to move play upfield and win territory. Celtic supporters have known this is a problem, and it’s so frustrating that our manager and coaching staff do not seem to see this as any problem. When our players try to pas their way out unsuccessfully from the back you can see the confidence draining out of them.
As far as the physicality or lack of it in our M/F goes, I don’t see this as the problem, if you look at the Hun M/F with Raskin,Barron and Diomande I wouldn’t say they look a lot stronger than us in that area.
Sunday is the 3rd game in a row that they have got in our faces early in the game and taken control of the first half, do we just continue playing the same way? If we do nothing will change whatever team we put on the park. Over to BR and his coaching staff to find a better way of playing in this fixture.
Your last line Micmac…
“Over toBR And his coaching staff to find a better way of playing in this fixture”
But will he / the coaching staff try something new or not…
Time will tell – But a 5-0 skelping at Liebrox will see his hand forced…
And if we play like the last two – Make no mistake, It could easily happen !
There is a great saying, “no such thing as a long ball or a short ball just the right ball”.