The last two days have profoundly damaged the Ibrox brand. What a disaster they are.

Two major stories involving the Ibrox finances have broken in the last 48 hours. Both cast a harsh and unforgiving light on the financial state of that club. The media’s complete lack of interest, the absence of proper investigation, and the failure to provide any big-picture analysis are absurd and disturbing.

It’s absurd because these people claim to be in the news business, yet it’s clear they would rather write fluff and nonsense than do any serious digging into what is a major story. There is no doubt that this is an issue with significant implications for the club’s future, yet they simply don’t want to put in the work. It’s astonishing.

But it’s disturbing too, because if they won’t investigate something this obvious—something massive and begging to be told—it makes you wonder where else they’re sleeping at the wheel. What other stories are they ignoring? What else are they too lazy or too cowardly to properly cover? That should concern all of us.

When it comes to the Ibrox takeover story, almost all of the worthwhile analysis has come from Celtic sites.

The latest, just the other day, was by Alan Morrison of Celtic By Numbers, now writing for The Huddle Exchange. He cited another piece by a journalist for Nutmeg, a guy called Nick Harris—an investigative writer who digs into the murky corners of football finance and has written extensively about the situation at Manchester City.

Harris’ take on the Ibrox takeover is that the consortium is probably aiming for a 51% stake but faces several hurdles to get there. He also suggests that the individuals involved may not have the kind of wealth they appear to.

If, for example, the 49ers themselves aren’t involved, then it comes down to Paraag Marathe at Leeds and the US healthcare guy whom Keith Jackson has spent the last few days wetting himself over.

You’ll notice that whenever these people are mentioned, their actual personal wealth is barely discussed. The Leeds group derives its financial muscle from the York family, who own the 49ers—that’s where the billions are.

The chairman of Leeds doesn’t have anywhere near that kind of net worth. If he’s funding some of this deal personally, then straight away, there’s an issue. This isn’t as lucrative as it’s being made out to be.

As for the US healthcare figure, Cavanagh, the focus has been on how big his company is and how much money it has in premiums—figures that have nothing to do with its actual earnings or his personal wealth.

But the media loves to throw around big numbers. They love the word “billions” as if it’s a magic spell. They conveniently forget that Celtic has had a billionaire on the board for over 20 years, and Ibrox had one not that long ago.

There’s no real hint that the people involved here are in that financial league. But it sounds good—it conjures up fantasies of transfer war chests, stadium rebuilds, and grand projects.

These aren’t exactly paupers, but they may not be significantly wealthier than someone like Douglas Park. Harris also suggests they’re looking to flip the club—to buy it, turn it profitable, and then sell it on.

But here’s where he loses me: he believes they need to return the team to winning ways on the pitch to make that happen. That could be far more expensive than they think.

There are other ways to squeeze money out of the club, as we’ve discussed on this blog before. In a leveraged buyout, they wouldn’t even need to put up the money themselves—they could simply borrow it and then transfer the debt to the club. Once they’re in control, they can do whatever they like. From that point on, the club exists solely to service that debt.

Looking at the fundamentals, their player trading model is a failure, and there’s no indication that it will improve.

One of the worst mistakes they could have made—and did make—was hiring a rookie manager with a backroom team used to working in the Scottish lower leagues. These guys have no track record in player development. Almost every footballer they inherited is likely to regress in the short time they have left this season. And these weren’t guys progressing at any pace anyway.

So there’s no sign that any of their recent signings will generate major transfer fees. That means next season’s recruits will be the ones burdened with expectation. It’s likely they’ll go for a strategy of buying cheap and selling high—all very short-term if they aim to flip the club within three to five years. That leaves no time for major infrastructure investment, despite the Scottish media’s delusions.

This is the key issue. That club needs rebuilding from the ground up. That will not be easy, cheap, or quick. Even if these people are here for the long haul, it will take the long haul to turn things around. It’s all very well talking about analytics improving their recruitment, but that requires a functional scouting department—something else that needs a complete rebuild.

This isn’t happening overnight, and their fans are not known for patience.

No one spending the kind of money required to buy the club and pay off the current directors is also going to sanction a massive transfer spree. And even if they wanted to—even if the funds were available—UEFA wouldn’t allow it.

Let’s not forget that due diligence isn’t a guarantee of purchase. These investors can still walk away. And after the last week, why wouldn’t they? Another £5 million raised through debt conversion to shares—valuing the club at over £100 million, despite shares being worth pennies—is absurd.

Worse still, they’ve had to take out a loan based on future transfer income.

That is catastrophic. That should terrify the Americans if they’re seriously considering this deal. When a club does that, it’s scraping the bottom of the barrel. There are no more pockets to turn out, no sofa cushions left to rummage behind for loose change. No more piggy bank to smash open. Buying that club means taking on a financial monster that devours money non-stop. All day, every day.

The last 48 hours have revealed the depths of the problems at Ibrox. And there may be worse yet to come.

I’ll tell you this: the takeover has to happen for them. If the Americans get cold feet, find a better deal elsewhere, or take one look under the bonnet and decide it’s a disaster—not that they’d need a forensic investigation to reach that conclusion—then that club is in a world of pain.

Regular readers know that I already suspect they’re in trouble, even in the best-case scenario. No one is throwing untold millions at Ibrox in a desperate push for the Champions League because the consequences of failure could be devastating—breaching sustainability regulations and digging an even deeper hole.

You think you’ve seen it all, then along comes a week like this. If they were serious about projecting strength during a takeover bid, they should be doing everything possible to show stability.

Instead, all they’ve done is advertise just how dire their situation truly is.

And there is no end in sight.

Photo by Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images

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