The Ibrox fakeover latest is the best sign yet that the fight is getting dirty.

So last night, the latest instalment—if we’re still calling it “news”—in the Ibrox takeover/fakeover saga dropped. And it was about as absurd as anything we’ve seen so far. This was the piece that was meant to silence all the online critics, all the uncomfortable questions. This was the bit that was supposed to shut us up, make us look flat-footed and foolish.

The story claims these guys have the 51% they need. But then it also says they don’t have the 51%, only that they now know how they’re going to get it. And it’s interesting to note how this alleged Ibrox insider claims they’ll manage it. It’s a bizarre claim. No one in the mainstream media has subjected it to a shred of scrutiny, even though it’s obviously flawed—to say the least.

“Talks have been ongoing since October to get enough shareholders on board to ensure that the 51 per cent mark can be reached after a new funding issue. The 51 per cent is secured, it is only the legals and regulatory approvals that are holding things up,” a so-called “Ibrox insider” told Andy Devlin of The Sun.

The only other outlet to run with this story is The Herald, where Chris Jack—another Ibrox insider—is parroting it again, without a single bit of due diligence or examination.

What’s especially telling is that The Sun’s biggest tabloid rival, the Daily Record—the very people who broke this exclusive and who have the most skin in the game keeping it alive—haven’t touched it with a twenty-foot pole.

In fact, Jackson this morning hinted that the whole thing could yet collapse and even if it does happen, it’ll be too late in the summer to build a management team or a squad capable of challenging us next season.

Take a moment to consider what Devlin is actually reporting, and what others are repeating without reading it properly far less understanding. If you spend just two minutes thinking about it, you’ll already be ahead of any journalist, fan media outlet or Ibrox supporter who’s blindly taken it at face value.

Because it doesn’t say the 51% is already in the bag. It says it can be reached after a funding issue. And what, exactly, does “a funding issue” mean? That vague little phrase is doing a hell of a lot of heavy lifting.

What it actually means is this: the Ibrox club intends to issue a whole new set of shares. The existing shares—which don’t have pre-emption rights—will be diluted. This new wave of shares will then be snapped up by the alleged investors, giving them their magic 51%. And if that sounds a bit… shady? You’re not wrong.

I’ve asked a couple of people who know the financial and legal side of this what they make of it. They agree it’s technically doable, but they all say it’s out of sequence and fundamentally flawed. And they asked a very interesting question—one I’ll get to in a minute.

Now, if they’ve got support around the boardroom table, they can issue new shares. They’ve done it before. They’ve routinely diluted shareholders in order to pay debts or raise capital. So yes, they’ve pulled these stunts before.

But in order for this to work, these supposed investors either need to own shares or have agreements in place to buy ever bigger blocks of them from those who do want to sell. Because existing shareholders get the first crack at any new share issuance like this one; it doesn’t go to Cavanagh and his crew. The only way the Americans or their backers can buy in is if they already have some skin in the game.

That’s what I mean by “out of sequence.” To push this through, they need a majority of votes on the board and a majority of shares already in their control. And what they’re asking is for shareholders who don’t want to sell to vote in favour of a change that will dilute their own value and influence.

To put it plainly: they’re asking turkeys to vote for Christmas.

It’s also worth noting who isn’t at the table; Club 1872. Their influence? Marginal at best. If you’re someone who’s been putting money into Club 1872 thinking it was about building a meaningful stake in the club, you’ve been taken for a ride. Royally. There are other words for it, but you can imagine what they are. Far from becoming big players in the club’s destiny, the fan shareholder organisation is about to be rendered completely and utterly irrelevant, it’s own shareholding reduced to virtually nothing.

What the report really says is that their effort to reach 51% by buying existing shares has failed. Either their offer wasn’t good enough, or people don’t trust them, or perhaps it’s because someone like Dave King stands to benefit—and that might be reason enough for others to block it.

This isn’t the picture of a takeover heading for a smooth, successful conclusion. This is the picture of a group cobbling together a minority stake—as this blog predicted—and then trying every trick in the book to gain control from there. One of those tricks? Flood the market with new shares and buy them up.

But let’s not forget: mechanisms exist to protect small shareholders from exactly this kind of thing. That’s why I keep banging on about the 75% mark. At 75%, you can change the company’s structure in any way you like and make their votes redundant. But as long as 26% of the vote is out there, it can form a block.

The existing shareholders would have to support this. Enough of them, anyway. And the rest can’t just assume this won’t affect them—it absolutely will.

Now, remember that question I said I’d get to?

If you already have the support to make this happen—if you already have enough pledged votes or agreed purchases—then why do you need this manoeuvre at all? Why dilute shares to gain something you supposedly already have?

If they already have 51% support – which they’ll need to push this through – they don’t need to do this. So, what’s the point? Unless, of course, they don’t have it—and this is their plan to muscle in and bully people until they get it.

And if they’re willing to go down that road—devaluing other people’s shares, using backdoor tactics—what does that say about them? These are not people who care about the small shareholders. These are not people playing nice.

If this were Celtic, I’d be very, very concerned.

So is it doable? Yes. But no one I’ve spoken to sees how it can be done without punishing those shareholders who didn’t want to sell—and whose votes you need to push it through. You are asking them to devalue their own holdings.

It’s all very opaque. It doesn’t answer questions—it raises a load of new ones.

What I think we’re seeing here is the early stages of a push to bounce reluctant shareholders into playing along. I think there are significant holdouts, both in the boardroom and in the broader shareholder base. And the closer we get to the summer and the transfer window, the more the pressure will grow. I can already see the narrative forming—blame the delays on the existing board.

This isn’t negotiation. This is coercion. It feels like we’re watching a little intimidation campaign unfold. “Get on board, or we’ll dilute your shares and take your power away.”

So, what’s the upshot? Has the takeover been brought any closer?

Well, not according to Chris Jack, who has spoken to the same sources as The Sun. He says don’t expect anything in the next ten days. Look instead to the end of May—after every season ticket has been sold. After the last of the gullible fans have been convinced to pony up. Then we’ll see what all the noise is really worth.

But make no mistake—it’s getting complicated. It’s getting messy. And anyone claiming otherwise isn’t being honest. A “funding issue” to get them to 51% is far more complex than these newspapers have made it seem. And there are more hurdles in the way than they’re letting on.

When they say there are legal and regulatory barriers to overcome—well that’s the only part of this you can believe. This story is far from over.