Last night, the final article I posted was about the Ibrox takeover and the notion, pushed by some in the mainstream media, that we are somehow running scared.
They think that we are so afraid we’re now looking for holes in the takeover theory which don’t actually exist. As I said in that piece, we’re not looking for holes—we’re pointing out the ones that are already there. If there’s any cognitive dissonance on display here, it’s certainly not on our side.
In that article, I specifically referenced the Dunning-Kruger effect and how it’s the media that’s overestimating its own understanding of these matters.
At around 10:30 or 11:00 last night, just as I was wrapping up for the day, an article appeared on the Daily Mail website—an exclusive on the takeover written by one of their Scottish correspondents, Calum Crowe. That exclusive confirms everything we’ve been hearing elsewhere. It backs up what Jackson claimed and then casually dismissed the other day—namely that the Americans are struggling to hit the 51% threshold required to give them control in the boardroom.
Now, never mind for a moment that we’ve already established it’s going to take more than 51% for them to be able to do everything they want to do. There are reasons why that matters, and I’ll come back to that because it ties into this story. But what this latest piece makes clear is that Jackson was right about one thing—there are senior members of the board, major shareholders, who are simply not on board with this.
That, of course, makes it very difficult to see how the Americans ever reach the 51%. One of the reasons this whole thing is taking so long is that the Americans are now working their way down the shareholder list, trying to tie down enough smaller investors to hit the number they’re allegedly targeting.
And who’s the name they’re courting at the moment? None other than Sandy Easdale, who—by various means—has got his hands on 10 million shares.
Now, that sounds like a lot. At a normal club, that would be a lot. But there are so many Ibrox shares out there now, thanks to their years of equity confetti, that 10 million shares only amounts to just over 2%. And yet, because he’s being courted, Easdale clearly believes he can be a key player in this, even with such a tiny percentage.
He is correct. Even to get to 51% it’s going to be tough for the board, and so even a shareholding that small can carry outsized influence and weight.
But as this blog has pointed out, to do anything meaningful with the corporate structure they will need 75% of the shares or thereabouts. They will certainly not easily get there is they can’t reach that much smaller figure.
If current major shareholders are not on board with the plan, and those people are still in place, well that’s the nucleus of a future opposition and all they need is to muster 25%, and they can stop anything the new board wants in its tracks.
One of the underlying problems here is that some of the shareholders who are holding out believe they can squeeze more money out of the Americans than has currently been offered. If the Americans do want to complete this deal, they’re going to have to come to an accommodation with those who hold enough shares to swing the balance.
And the more desperate they get, the more these people think they can cash in. It’s a high-risk strategy, but it might just work—an extra million here, a couple million there. I’d try it. You’d try it. We’d all try it.
The Daily Mail article says the reason they’ve gone so far down the food chain to people like Easdale is that they’re encountering unexpected resistance from the current major shareholders. But that resistance is only “unexpected” if you’ve no understanding of Ibrox boardroom politics. King’s involvement in this would be a red flag for some of them. Perhaps that’s the issue.
And finally, we now have—in a national publication, not just on fan blogs—the suggestion that the Americans may walk away completely if they can’t secure the required number of shares. I think there’s a very real chance this whole thing could collapse. This single article, published late last night, is the most destabilising one to appear in the mainstream press thus far, but the direction of travel is clear. It casts genuine and serious doubt over the entire outcome.
I still don’t understand any of this. I don’t see what these people think they’re going to achieve. I don’t see an upside. I don’t see a profit. I don’t see how, if they have to sink their own cash into this, that they ever get it back. I don’t see how they can do a leveraged buyout without the 75% voting bloc guarantee. So, the big question, the one that’s puzzled us from the start, remains: why?
But increasingly, the more important question might be; how?
Because right from the beginning, this is what we’ve been asking on our blogs: is it even likely that they’ll reach 51%? My colleague Joe McHugh has said from the get-go that he thinks that’s an impossible threshold. We’ll see.
What the Mail report last night makes clear—even more than Jackson’s piece at the weekend—is that this is no longer finely balanced between a deal being done soon or a little further down the line. This is now hanging between a deal getting anywhere near completion and the whole thing collapsing entirely.
And more and more, that looks like where it’s headed.
And more and more planted stories of threatened walking away placing pressure on those with a greed factor instead of having ” the best interests of the club”.
Noticed today that the Easedales purchased 4m additional shares in Rangers.
Puzzled why the new takeover investors did not aquire them?
You must be a huge believer in reincarnation Terry…
Because absolutely The Easdale or anybody else can purchase either 4 far less 4 million in ‘Rangers’ –
Because ‘Rangers’ are dead as the dodo !
The Ibrox fans won’t like hearing the name Easdale. If I remember rightly they actually intended to run the club on a proper business footing and gradually build them to be self sustainable. How dare they refuse to throw their well earned millions into a black hole to ensure the hordes get immediately back to beating the Tim’s.
I have to say I was glad to see them go as like with Ashley’s guys they would have had the club back challenging sooner than those who did take over.
It’s only natural, the Celtic support takin an interest in what’s happenin over there just now. It’s unavoidable. And its the pro – ibrox media and support theirselves, who’ve made sure of it. Since it came about, the utter fantasy world a large element of the ibrox support have been livin in is embarrassin. As if these people were goin tae walk in and start throwin hundreds of millions around. Isn’t goin tae happen. So we ( the Celtic support ), just sit and wait tae see what develops with a curious interest. (as well as admittedly, havin immense fun, listenin tae all the doubts and uncertainty startin tae surface ) Tbh ah still think, probably somethin will happen. Tho it never was, or will be the way half of them are thinkin.
If they are scrambling around with the 2% players it may be they are toiling to even get to the minimum level of influence ie 25% .
also I cant get my head around the fundamental point in this topic ie why anyone would invest anything until they knew if TRFC would be in the CL next season? ..and the certain knowledge of that is at best the end of May ( assuming they win the Europa) or if not then the end of August.
The difference in the Funding requirement VS qualifying only for the Europa is dramatic ie needing tens of millions more to cover losses and buy players to try to get to the CL the following year by overcoming Celtic in Scotland ( with zero guarantee of success.) all on top of spending £25m or £50m to get in
Also if Celtic themselves make the CL that task is even greater for obvious reasons and the gap possibly unbridgeable particularly if the CFC board back Rodgers properly .
So the end of August is a very important decision or tipping point for anyone involved in running or thinking of investing in TRFC..it must be ! …(although winning the Europa would probably get the Investors bounced in earlier on the ensuing euphoria)
The share price being quoted ,if you can believe anything on this story, ie 20p a share values the club at £100m ..wow! ..so..How do new investors secure capital growth from that starting point ???
If the cards fall in the worst case scenario for TRFC ie they are Europa and CFC are CL most of the equity managers i know were they advising or involved would play this only one way ie put another single pound coin on the table on the morning of the 29th August to buy out the entire company .
If that happens the existing directors are faced with accepting it as Murray had to OR face putting more millions in to keep the lights on OR putting the company into administration .
CL qualification IMO must be everything . It must be !
You can be 100% sure that Kavanagh and his so called associates will have played these scenarios out in detail . 20 p a share ?..whew!
The fakeover could do with a makeover to make it more interesting, yawn, boring as fk!
They would probably make more money investing in KFC .
Winner winner chicken dinner
Derision and Scorn time yet?? Jackson’s nails are bitten down to the knuckle, Motherwell millionaire or was it Billionaire, wealth off the radar (sure fekin was) and now what? Fans let down the takeover.!
Because they have no shares regulated they can go for any price. I don’t see the yanks offering anywhere near the 20p per share. More likely under 10p a share.
Wouldn’t it be deliciously humorous if the shareholders, the real Ranjurz men stopped the club from reaching 49er’s nirvana.
John Brown calling them all out as ‘Rats’!
Orchestrated attacks of the Ibrox reception workers by some of King’s fascist henchmen!
Onion bears demonstrations and more walk outs!
The Klan languishing as second best for eternity!
Longing for the heady days of Mike Ashley, LMAO!
King no due to jet in soon?
Ah the banter years will never end.
And Jackshun proven to be a pathological liar once AGAIN !!!
Maybe Calum Crowe will need to take cover from the rest of the media. His previous article was headlined “Even if Barry Ferguson beats Bilbao, it would still be crazy to give him the Rangers job next season”.
If the fakeover fails to materialise, where does that leave sevco?
Because of the secrecy which surrounds their financial machinations, it has been easy for the smsm to portray them as a bona fide business, trading as normal. The continuous losses are written off (in more ways than one) as share holder investments. But the exponential burgeoning of the number of shares issued, has to have had an impact on the share price. I suspect the yanks are offering something close to this value, while the current holders want something closer to what they paid. If the deal doesn’t go through, it will highlight what a basket case they really are, despite Jackson drivelling on about their financial muscle. It will also leave the present incumbents scrabbling around to implement the next chapter of the great revival in time for the early rounds of the Champions League play offs.