It was a relatively minor politician called Leonard H. Courtney who is believed to have first used the phrase “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” a phrase which was later attributed to Disraeli, but more appropriately to Mark Twain.
It’s a popular saying because, like many such things, it contains more than just a core of truth.
I’m always wary of stats being used to back up an argument because, if you’re looking to prove a point—whatever the issue—there’s probably a stat out there that’ll support your claim. It’s not that the stats themselves are manipulated, although they often are. It’s that they are sometimes misrepresented or presented in a way that gives a wholly false picture. Most people recognise this.
That’s why I was highly amused the other day when I saw stuff doing the rounds on the Ibrox fan forums about our statistics in relation to how we’re refereed. And if you want to talk about misrepresenting stats, that was a clear-cut example. Because I’ve rarely seen statistics so badly skewed.
Yes, we’re the club with the fewest yellow cards. We’re the club that’s had the most penalties. We’re a club that’s only had one red card. I’m sure there’s a stat somewhere saying we’re one of the clubs with the lowest number of penalties awarded against us too. This is all presented as though it proves something—as though it proves that referees are in our pocket and on our side.
Actually, it proves nothing of the kind.
If we have the highest number of penalties awarded in the league, it’s because we attack more than anyone else. How do we know that? Because we scored over 110 league goals this season. The facts speak for themselves. There was a point in the campaign where we were averaging three goals per game. There was a spell where we were averaging four.
So that stat about penalties? It’s easily explained.
And the same goes for conceding fewer fouls. Our possession is higher than any other club in the league—probably by some considerable distance—which means we spend more time on the ball than we do trying to win it back.
Sometimes we have three or four times as much time in possession as the opposition gets in a game. Naturally, we don’t commit as many fouls because we’re not constantly chasing the ball. The same goes for yellow cards; just trying to win the ball back doesn’t automatically rise to the level of a booking.
I also think we have enough players with the discipline not to put themselves into those bad positions. There’s nothing surprising about any of that. Except, the stats are wildly different than I expected, and they don’t fit the pattern at all.
Yesterday, The Celtic Star posted a piece on officiating in Scotland following the weekend’s game, in which I thought we were dreadfully refereed.
It was one of the worst refereeing performances I’ve seen in a long time, and although there were no particularly controversial incidents, I think Dickinson stopped the game at every opportunity when we were trying to win the ball back. That’s one of the things I’ve talked about on this site before.
I believe we are probably punished more than most clubs in the league, because I’ve watched games where it’s perfectly clear that the officials have done everything they can to slow our momentum and give fouls against us which, if we’re being generous, are marginal. The point of that is, of course, to break up our patterns of play. The point is that when we lose the ball, we’re penalised for trying to get it back.
This morning, The Celtic Star followed up their excellent article with another one, and this one presented a more interesting fact than anything the Ibrox sites produced over the weekend: Celtic have the highest yellow card to foul ratio in the league.
So we commit fewer fouls and get fewer yellow cards than most other sides in the league. But that deeper dive, that particular ratio, almost confirms what I’ve long suspected: that we are refereed more harshly in terms of what we do get penalised for. How can the side with the highest possession in the league—and who commit one of the lowest numbers of fouls—also get the most yellow cards per foul committed?
Something is clearly out of whack with officiating.
Something is either not working as intended or—more concerning—it is working as intended. Because I thought that performance at the weekend summed up the lamentable state of refereeing in Scotland.
There was no major decision that went against us, but I’ve always said that officials can influence games in decisive ways without having to give big decisions. A number of small ones can stop a team from hitting its stride just as easily as a red card or a penalty going the wrong way.
In some ways, this is worse. It’s more insidious. It’s harder to identify. But the proof is there in the numbers.
Because no amount of spin can make the numbers lie. You can try to use them in ways that suit you, but you can’t change them.
The statistics aren’t always telling lies, far less damned lies. The Ibrox fans think they’re “onto something,” but as usual, they’re not seeing the wood for the trees. It took a Celtic fan site—no surprises there—to uncover the actual truth.
The severe entitlement is engraved intae their psyche. Most of their support have been through the decades with corrupt officials like i.e. davidson, syme, tait, mccurry and were content tae ignore it, as long as it favoured the ibrox club and it did. Stands tae reason, now that these days, these same supporters or x ibrox has beens cant enjoy the same extreme and obvious bias, they would rather convince theirselves in their tiny minds, that every honor won by Celtic through the years, has been due tae some form of ‘cheating’ or ‘ corruption’, rather than face the truth that they were won legitimately and on merit.
Statistics are like a bikini; what they reveal is interesting but what they conceal is vital!
Ha Ha – Very good BhilltheTim !
Thank you James! I thought I was the only one ranting about Dickinsons performance at the weekend. It was absolutely atrocious. I referred to it as “Death by a thousand cuts”
His refusal to punish the St Mirren goalie for the time wasting as early as the 5th minute, his constant stoppages for non fouls, were all bad enough. But the amount of times he actually interfered in our play by his “positioning” wasn’t accidental.
There were numerous occasions where he actually blocked possible goal attempts or passes to other players.
If it had been a major talking point or controversy that had decided the game, then we’re all up in arms, it’s the sleekit underhand mannner of it that has really got my goat.
I watched one of the play off games last week and while not great, I thought referee has had a decent game here, letting hard tackles go, play end to end etc. Then I caught a glimpse of ref and I couldn’t believe it was Dickinson. So he can do the job at least to a standard, when he doesn’t have skin in the game!!
I’ve never seen a referee get in the way of stopping potential passes in the last third of the pitch, our last third. That was not accidental,that clown Dickenson was deliberately obstructing our momentum. Anybody else pick up on this?
The Klan love the victim card and they try to find and use that at every turn.
When you fall over playing Celts with zero contact it is often a free kick.
Keepers take 30 secs to kick a ball out and often play for more time. Is this a tactic a manager puts in play if so they should be reprimanded.
There was a rule way back 6 mins to release the ball, that should come back in play.
A rangers fan was complaining because at the weekend we had too many balls around the park, ffs!!
The keeper was on the deck on Saturday first half for nearly 3 mins and that time was not added, these should be simple things to work out. All treatment time should be added. All time wasting added or doubled.
Add every sub event 1 minute added
Must’ve been a Queens Park Rangers fan, or a Berwick Rangers fan, or a Cove Rangers fan, or a Brora Rangers fan, or a Stafford Rangers fan JimBhoy…
It sure as hell wasn’t a Glasgow ‘Rangers’ fan as they are ad dead as the dinasours are !!!
The ref played just in front of their back 4 and had a superb game for them.
Brilliant!!!!
Now that VAR looks at decisions such as offside, penalty kicks, red cards whilst reviewing play leading up to a goal being scored, the referees know they are being closely monitored on big decisions. Some of them concentrate on trying to influence games in other more devious ways, soft free kicks, dodgy throw in decisions,50/50 corner kick decisions given against you, that can giveaway possession and can influence the flow of the game. At this time we’re so much better than other teams, meaning it very seldom stops us from winning, but in a close title race or a tight knock out game it could affect the outcome.
Hopefully sometime soon the offside rule will be changed, to clear daylight being between attacker and the 2nd last defender before an offside decision is given.
A good point Micmac as is that of James…
These stats are utterly fuckin INCREDIBLE so they are but not really surprising all the same…
Over to you ‘Lucan’ to do your bloody job as CEO of Celtic FC for once…
Take a wee bitta education from Sevco at the weekend and get Celtic’s narrative in there early for once !
There is also the fouls for Celtic, we win the ball in a fair tackle/tussle which has potential for us to create something. Ref gives us the foul and prevents a break and then shrugs his shoulders – sly b’s.
It wasn’t just the ref who was at it on Saturday, the North Stand linesman was either incompetent or crooked. On at least two occasions the St M forwards attacked the ball punted from their goalie coming back from clear offside positions. Not only dangerous (through the back of Scales twice) but so far offside it was laughable. But no flag. And not at all interested in speeding up play or stopping St M steal yards on throw ins.
Dickinson’s performance was another level tbf – my only surprise was that he didn’t collapse to the turf like some of the St M players when Forrest scored (thank you James).
Not incompetent Porto Joe but CROOKED…
In fact Corrupt – And ah can fuckin well say it… (Copyright – The Fenian version of John Brown) !
Only I’m a million times better lookin – And I ain’t no oil painting but a beer belly’d Rab C Nesbitt !!!
Whilst I agree the stat shows we are officiated very strictly. I do think that at least some of the reason is, quite often our fouls are when a player has made an error when the team has pushed up the pitch & the error has brought a counter to the defense.
I can think of several instances when AJ, Scales & Taylor have committed professional fouls correctly to stop the counter. For these I understand why we probably get booked more often vs fouls because these types of foul are probably most common for us.
Maeda also has a tendancy to commit several niggling fouls to the point I think Refs see him as an easy target for a yellow. Likewise though I can think of many bookings for the likes of Kuhn & a few others though that you can 100% call premature & refs knowing an early yellow can isolate a player for a lot of the rest of the game for fear of a second yellow.