Celtic will either sign Lennon Miller in the next few weeks or we never will.

There’s no smoke without fire. How often have we heard that? But is it actually true? If there’s one thing you learn in this business, especially when giving and analysing transfer rumours and stories, it’s that there is frequently a lot of smoke and no fire at all.

Yesterday, I wrote about the Danish striker and the end of that particular alleged pursuit. There was a lot of smoke there. I don’t know how much fire there actually was.

Yesterday also saw the resurrection of the Lennon Miller story. And this one has been going for quite a while now, although not as long as the story involving the big Danish striker. The Lennon Miller story is interesting for a number of reasons — because there appears to be a lot of smoke and not much evidence of flames.

But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find that almost every journalist in the Scottish sports media believes that Celtic have spoken to Lennon Miller and his club. So, there is real and genuine interest in this player. It’s not just smoke and mirrors.

The view that we will go in for Lennon Miller at some point in this window and try to get him is so widespread as to be virtually universal. I refuse to believe that’s all based on hearsay and speculation. I’ve spoken to people who have assured me there’s more to this story than just vapours. Celtic are interested in Miller and would like to bring him to the club. It’s just a matter of distance.

Now what do I mean by that? Well, the distance between how good Miller thinks he is now and how good he thinks he could be. The distance between what Celtic think is a fair value for him and what Motherwell might try to hold out for. The distance between whether Miller wants to go abroad or play here at home. The distance between the advice that he’s getting and how much he listens to that advice.

Let’s start with that one and work our way backwards through the rest.

If you look at the advice Miller is getting — much of it from people who don’t like our club — almost all of it is urging him to move abroad. Almost all of it. I can’t remember the last time I read someone who said we should be trying to keep our best players in Scotland, and that if the chance comes to sign for Celtic, he should take it. If someone has said it, tell me who they were. If some mainstream media figure or former professional has actually used those words, I’d love to know who. Because I’ve not seen one. Not a single person I can identify has told him to sign for Celtic.

I’ve listened to his dad talk about this too, and he doesn’t seem terribly keen for his son to sign for Celtic. All of them have given some variation of the “he doesn’t want to rot on the bench” theory — and we’ll get to that point later on, because it matters. It’s certainly something the player has to consider.

I imagine he’s watched Lewis Ferguson win an Italian Cup at Bologna and Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay win the Serie A title in Naples.

That might have given him the mistaken impression that it’s easier to go abroad and make a big impact. But McTominay and Gilmour have been extremely fortunate — they went to a club on the way up. Ferguson may be even more fortunate still, having joined one of those surprise cup-winning sides that have popped up all over Europe this season — even on this island, with Crystal Palace and Aberdeen.

But Miller shouldn’t mistake that for a guarantee that he’s going to end up at a club where he’ll find that kind of regular success.

Still, there’s a lot to be said for moving to a foreign country at his age, with a lot of money to spend and the whole world to experience. It will be tempting. Very tempting. If there’s an offer from middle-tier Spain or some other sunny climate, and they’re going to pay you lavishly for doing what you love, that’s hard to turn down. If he wants to go abroad rather than stay here in Scotland, I can easily understand why.

I also understand that Celtic will have a valuation on Lennon Miller, and they will not go above it. Motherwell will try to hold out for as large a fee as they can get. They may even try it on for a crazy fee.

And we all know — because we’ve seen it before, and we bear the scars — that any club we try to do business with in Scotland is going to slap a 20% Celtic premium on top of what we think is reasonable… and probably 20% on top of what they think is reasonable, just so their fans don’t have to watch him four times in a year in our shirt.

Lennon Miller is the right age to anchor our midfield for five to ten years. Five if he gets an offer elsewhere and finally decides he wants to chase career goals in another country. Ten if he wants to stay and make himself a legend.

But he’s young enough that both are realistic. He’s young enough that you can conceivably see him becoming a Scott Brown, growing into the role and being in the side for a decade. So what does that do to his valuation?

How much is too much to pay for Lennon Miller? Are you buying the potential — what he might be — or are you buying what he is right now?

That will determine what you’re willing to spend.

Even then, you look around Europe and wonder, is there someone else out there in that same age bracket, with that same potential, who you could get for less than the price this club on our doorstep wants? And Motherwell have to be careful too — because he’s out of contract at the end of next season. This might be their one shot to get a proper fee before that becomes a problem.

Celtic will know this. And they might be tempted to play a waiting game.

A mistake, by the way, that we made before with John McGinn. And I doubt there’s a day that goes by without someone inside Celtic Park regretting that mistake. Not that they paid any kind of price for it.

Which brings us to the most important point. The distance between the player he is… and the player he believes he can be. If that distance is too great, he’s not going to swap Motherwell for Celtic, no matter what we offer him.

This requires belief not just in what he might become — but in what he is right now. Does Lennon Miller really believe he has the mentality to come into this team and challenge for a place right now?

Does he think he’s got the talent to supplant one of the top players in this midfield and avoid being benched or in the stands?

I think there’s a level of implied insult in all these people in the media telling him not to sign for Celtic because he won’t play every week.

In fact, I don’t even think it’s implied — it’s right there in his face. These people are saying, flat out, “You’re not good enough.” So the question becomes whether he believes them. Whether he trusts that view.

Rodgers won’t guarantee anyone first team football.

But we play a rotation system, and players do get game-time most weeks. Whether he becomes a regular starter depends on him — on what he contributes, on what he puts in. Ultimately, Miller would be betting on himself. This is the biggest gamble he’ll take in his career — and the bet is on how good he is and how good he can be. And he’ll answer that question with the choice he makes.

There’s no reason he can’t come in and become a Celtic regular.

If he’s good enough, he will be. Sure, he can go to another club — one with less pressure, one with less competition, where he’ll play every week. But real growth as a footballer comes from being at a club that’s expected to win every week, that plays front-foot football, that competes in every competition.

So maybe the real distance we have to overcome is the one in his own head. And that comes down to mentality and confidence. If he’s mentally switched on, and he believes in himself to that degree, there’s no reason not to choose Celtic. We’ll make him a good offer, not just in the short term but the long term. And playing under Rodgers will absolutely open his mind and improve him.

But this one is coming to an end either way.

He’ll either be a Celtic player soon, or it’ll be over this summer and he won’t be. There won’t be a middle ground anymore. There won’t be another summer of dragging feet and waiting to see the lay of the land.

No more Motherwell holding out hope that the eight-figure bid will come in — which they’re now talking about in the context of Sunderland. Maybe he thinks Sunderland is a good move. Maybe he doesn’t. They look to me like a club who’ve done well to get promoted, but who could just as easily go straight back down.

But one way or another, this summer tells the tale. If he’s going to be a Celtic player, he’ll be one by 1 September. If he’s not, then he never will be. I don’t hold out hope of a Bosman. I don’t think we’ll get him in January either. By then, he’ll have all the options in the world and people offering him more money than we ever will.

So it comes down to the next couple of weeks.

If we go in, we have to go in for real. No piss-take lowball offers. We have to treat Motherwell with respect — and treat the player with respect — because he’s been loyal to them, and I think he’ll remain loyal until the day he signs for someone else. A lowball bid will insult both him and his club.

We have to be realistic. But so do they.

They can ask for a crazy fee in the hope that someone else will pay it, but the game is played in the space between those two lines and clubs have paid a price for playing it badly. They could well wind up seeing him go in January for a nominal sum.

I like Miller a lot. I think he’s a really excellent player. And I think a Celtic team should always have a group of Scottish players at its core — not just to tick a box on a UEFA form, but because we’re a Scottish club. It grounds us. Keeps us connected to our roots. And we should be signing the best of the best of them. Who else is going to do it? The club across the city aren’t even in the race.

So I’m crossing my fingers. I don’t know if I expect it. I have a sneaking suspicion he’d prefer to move abroad.

But if we move quickly, and with purpose, if we act with integrity, and the manager sits the kid down and explains the role he wants him to play — we’ll give him a decision to make. After that, we’ve done our part. The rest is down to him.