KILMARNOCK, SCOTLAND - MAY 15: Celtic Board members Peter Lawwell and Michael Nicholson during a cinch Premiership match between Kilmarnock and Celtic at Rugby Park, on May 15, 2024, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Craig Foy/SNS Group via Getty Images)
Yesterday morning’s piece on the board and the strategy seems to have been reasonably well received. I’m very grateful for all the kind comments about it, but really, there’s nothing special about that article.
I’ve been reading the forums, watching the mood online, talking to friends—and everyone feels the same low-level anxiety about where we are and where we might be headed. And it’s just so needless. So stupid.
There’s one thing I haven’t talked about yet—not because I’m afraid to talk about it, and not because I actually believe it’ll happen. I haven’t talked about it because, compared to the European situation, it feels low-priority. It seems like such an outside chance that to worry about it feels like needless fretting.
But the more I think about it, the more I realise it’s not nothing.
Because we’re gambling here with more than just Champions League money. We’re gambling with more than whether the manager stays or goes. We’re gambling with the entire domestic foundation of our success.
We’ve always said that, for the Celtic Empire to fall, two things must happen: we fall asleep at the wheel and make catastrophic, unforgivable mistakes and the other lot get their act together enough to capitalise.
If either of those fails to happen, we still win. Title after title. Year after year. Until something in their structure collapses irreparably—which, by the way, has come a lot closer than most people realise.
What worries many of us is that their part of this equation isn’t even that hard. They don’t have to become a great side—they just have to be consistently better than the rest of the league. If they finish second comfortably and manage to improve just 5–10%, they’ll start grinding out more wins.
And in a year when we’re not at our best, that could be enough.
What makes our job harder is that every other side in this league will also be an improved version of itself this season, something I wrote about a couple of weeks ago. The pressure on us isn’t just from across the city. It’s from all directions. Which is why the need to strengthen the squad—to maintain a dominant, adaptable Celtic side—is more urgent than ever.
I’m not worried by the Ibrox rebuild. I’ve seen nothing impressive. No signing they’ve made scares me. But that’s not the point. If we go backwards, while everyone else moves forward, then it doesn’t take much for us to get caught. We could be looking at a dogfight by accident.
In recent years, we’ve measured Celtic’s domestic strength by looking at the league table at the end of the campaign. We rarely fall below 90 points. And 90 points, in a 38-game season, means 30 wins. If you’re in that ballpark, you’re usually champions. If you hit 100, you are champions. No one else in Scotland is likely to reach that. It’s simply not sustainable for any challenger to hit that figure.
But if we regress—even slightly—we risk dropping more points than is safe.
If we fall below 90, a consistent side with momentum can catch us. The Ibrox club doesn’t have to be great. They just have to stay consistent and get close to 90. That’s how tight the margins have always been.
And the margin for error in our squad is paper-thin as it stands at the moment.
An injury to Maeda and our attacking left flank is Yang and… nobody. An injury to Tierney and we’re in real bother. If it comes, right now, with an injury to Maeda we’ve lost the whole left side.
We have no right-winger at the moment, which means if James Forrest goes down, we’re stuck. An injury to Adam Idah and we’re reliant on youth players—untested ones to carry the forward line. And if we do sign the Japanese striker, he becomes our central man because until we have a left sided attacker, Maeda can’t shift from the left to cover him, because we’ve no other option there either.
An injury to Carter-Vickers puts us in serious trouble at centre-back. Lose Alistair Johnston and we’re suddenly relying on Tony Ralston—who becomes first-choice with no cover. This might sound like catastrophising. It’s not. It’s just simple arithmetic.
Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
This isn’t just a long domestic season where we’re expected to reach Hampden four times. This is a season built around European football.
At least eight group stage games are guaranteed now—whether in the Champions League or Europa League. Two qualifiers before that. And potentially more games after that, depending on how we do.
We cannot expect a tiny core group of players to carry us through that schedule. If the backup options aren’t up to scratch, we’re risking burnout—or full-blown crisis.
If you saw the Cork game, you’ll know what I mean.
The kids who came on in the second half? That’s the depth we’re working with right now in certain positions. Those are our backup options. If we’re planning to run Daizen Maeda into the ground through the first half of the season, we’d better have a plan for who replaces him later—and that person had better be of equal quality, capable of stepping up, because that might be when the league is won or lost.
The rule is simple: two quality players in every position, so that if one drops, the other can step in without a drop in performance.
And yes, you’ll always have freak situations where two players in the same position are injured at the same time. That’s why you need flexibility—players like Maeda who can cover more than one role, or like Hatate who can operate across midfield.
But project players? Kids learning on the job? If you’re filling mission critical roles with players who are still developing, you’re asking for trouble. Big trouble.
And that’s exactly why Rodgers didn’t start the Mark Lawwell signings regularly. He knows—as all managers at this level do—that at a club like Celtic, with the need to win and dominate and break the 90-point barrier every year, you can’t be babysitting. You can’t carry passengers. You can’t wait for someone to reach the required level—they have to be there already.
It’s fine bringing on Johnny Kenny when you’re 3–0 up and cruising. But we brought that lad on at Hampden to save a Scottish Cup Final. And that’s a situation we created by failing to replace Kyogo. And here we are, a month into the window—and we still haven’t replaced him. And it’s not the only area that needs urgent surgery.
Because for all the talk of the damage missing out on the Champions League can do—it’s nothing compared to the long-term wear and tear on this squad. If other sides have improved, and we’ve regressed, then our dominance is in jeopardy.
It’s not just about the starting XI. It’s about who can step in for them. And right now, anything less than serious, quality investment means we’re not going to be there, and that is playing Russian Roulette with a half-loaded gun.
PLC first FC second, it’s always been this board’s mantra. Nothing will change at Celtic FC until the board does. Everyone knows this so why is anyone surprised we find ourselves in this situation?
What situation? Going for 56 and 5-in-a-row is okay by me.
The curse of Celtic has always been the management though I exempt the McCann years from this.
Nothing new here James,it’s the same every transfer window,but you’re right we will get caught out,I’ve gave up thinking that the board might get us players to compete in Europe or at least qualify but nah ,they won’t ,they have never speculated to accumulate,and as for domestic football sevco ain’t that far behind us for all the money we’ve got in the bank,if sevco get there act together and beat some of the lesser teams in the league they will catch us and after last season’s diabolical games against them they will surely overtake us.i just wish this board would sell up and give someone else a chance to run the club ,a Fergus McCann type,but there’s too much money to be made and this board know it,the Celtic fans will continue to line liewell and desmonds pockets and the board know it, something has to change but I can’t see the fans refusing to buy STs and merchandise etc so nothing will change,much like Brendan’s plan A .
It never fails to amaze me when people are surprised at disappointment during transfer windows. Celtic NEVER kick on from a position of strength. We stay just ahead of the rest and are quite content to sit there, until we make an arse of it. Yamada is Kyogo’s replacement and we “might” sign a winger. That’ll be it until deadline day when we sign 2 or 3 unknowns on loan with no option to buy. I still think someone else will be sold and the old excuse of “we didnt have time to find a replacement” will come into it.
James,
As Alan Morrison pointed out recently ..by Mid July last year only Sinisalo had been signed and yet now despite multiple signings on board half the fan base are ‘losing it’ albeit there is a CL qualifier this year .
There is no doubt the club has a board that could best be described as moribund but I from some personal experience ,and most fans I think believe these guys are CFC to their last drop of blood .
However as very well laid out by one of the posters yesterday ..there has been a distinct lack of real progress on many fronts hidden by the on the field success against a very weak main opponent …. some new dynamic board members are indeed surely needed ….but that is not the core issue right now albeit it needs addressed soon
As usual your analysis of the situation with the team and the attendant risks is well articulated and very well understood anyway by most forward thinking fans ….. but …you portray this essentially and only as ‘ a board issue..you took a flamethrower to them yesterday and again today . I agreed with Johnny G yesterday when he said it was too premature. I still think it is…but IMO there is more to this than them being too Corporate and only financially focussed
There are battalions of players on the payroll and yet there are only 6 or 7 you quote good enough for CL
Rodgers must be pulling his hair out with the disaster that is the academy constantly failing to produce anything of substance… but that said …
the same BR spent £27m on Idah Trusty and Engels and the majority of the support I would suggest don’t really rate any of the 3 …None of them were on the park in the last stages of the battle for the treble ..Why? anonmyous or hopeless.as also in TRFC matches?..take your pick
As an example I didn’t know Engles was on the park against Cork until i heard him credited with the flick back..I only knew he was paying against Queens Park because he took the corners …He looked no better than any of the other young boys . Trusty can’t pass the ball under pressure . Idah???..maybe !
So James if you are the CEO and this is how your manager spent the big money . Can you trust him ? AND he won’t say he will stay beyond next year ….would you be rushing to spend big right now ?…don’t think so ..
Remember too there must be a very poor/non existent relationship between PL and BR and really is that what is at the very heart of what is playing out right now ?…and may that be the real issue here ..Its him or me ..He stays ?.then I’m not staying long term ?
You have to think with some sort of stand off of some kind is on the go (and you have repeatedly said it ,,they will spend the Kuhn money ) and given that they will give him the best tools they can within reason and try to get the holes covered to get through CL..but no more than that until he signs a new contract ..
For his part if that happens and he fails to qualify he will be gone next year and as you point out the obvious risks do actually materialise .
James ..you are right in your analysis of the implications at play but I suspect it is not ‘the board’ per se playing roulette but there is a BR and PL ‘mexican style ‘stand off at play and we all know who will win that
I’m returning the compliment….well said Charlie.
If my uncle was my granny etc. We get these same doubts and needless fears every season, fretting over the worst scenarios with imaginations running riot. I don’t give any other club in Scotland a second thought to be honest, I don’t care who their managers are, what players they are signing etc. but I do know that when it comes to squad size and quality we are out there well in front of the rest. This years campaign will just be yet another question of who wil finish third with the huns guaranteed 2nd place. We of course should not be complacent, and yes we do need to get better players into some key positions, but let’s not exaggerate the present situation, we are well enough equipped to hande most outcomes, scaremongering is futile,
I see Tilio is in the starting line up this morning, I’m a wee bit surprised by that one.
Kuhn’s replacement? 🙂
Engles has played excellent in his first season here and won the YPoTY award.Trusty was incredible against Atlanta but didn’t have a first year comparable to CCV ,that could change.And Idah helped win us the league and cup last year and has a healthy goal tally this year.So their criticism is unwarranted, especially on the basis of a friendly second pre-season game against Cork City.
I see Nygren and Yamada as prospects with the hope it ends there and now we start spending on first team ready players in the positions James listed above, in preparation for the CL and long season ahead.Anything less is a dereliction of duty.
Sitting with what ? 70,80 million in the bank and not even buying a handful of 7 to 8 million players never mind 5 to 6 is not only biscuit tin but self defeating. Let’s see how little we can give the manager (who has won us practically everything) to work with and see if he can still keep winning.
Someone is playing games with our winning football record by holding us back to save money is how it looks.Perhaps to preserve their wee accolade of being one of the financially best run clubs in Europe.
Is a good season now to maintain that accolade or to win trophies?
Are we a football club for the fans and the football record books or a profit making entity which jeopardizes that to fill shareholder pockets ? We know which is priority so let’s hope they do to and start splashing the 5+ millions on a handful of first team ready players before the preseason is over.
Volp
I agree with your core point that the board ( Lawwell controlled probably ) are just too conservative and that they don’t /won’t build from a position of strength ..
CFC is what the name suggests…. a FOOTBALL club which hundreds of thousands love and are very personally invested in . The fans just want them to be the best they can football achievement wise with the resources it can afford…Like you I believe the board in this respect and therefore the Football club are underperforming and so the fans know it could be better …much better ..I couldn’t give a hoot about mega profits etcetc …run a small overdraft and win 20 ina row /CL quarters etc is my vote !
I believe Lawwell et al were spooked 20 odd years ago when they nearly went under on the back of the O’Neil spending and they know ( unlike TRFC ) CFC would never be allowed to reincarnate were disaster to strike …that said they are far too conservative .
re my comments earlier on players which you allude to
I would keep Trusty in the squad ..he is a good DEFENDER and when you are at the Alamo ( Atalanta etc )..you are right ..he is your man all day long ..but in evenly balanced games in CL or against TRFC ..in the middle of the park he is a bombscare IMO and this is why BR doesn’t use him
Engels ..one or two nice touches and that’s it IMO … I really do hope he comes good but don’t see it ..lets agree to disagree on that one !
Well that’s the first defeat of pre season out of the way,some of those players aren’t even Junior,appreciate pre season etc etc,but poor very poor,that article you wrote James could’ve been pasted from last season orseason before last and we had qualified for CL,always gambling with CL when we need to qualify,as you said,if we regress while the progress we’re in trouble
There is always some uncertainty before the start of every season but this seems a bit different.
Will the manager sign a new contract?
If it looks like he is leaving we will not win the league.
Will we sign a couple of CL quality players before or after qualification?
I understand quality players will leave it late to examine their options.
Today’s opposition were of a decent standard but overall Celtic were poor.
Inamura found his level,not good enough.
Of course it’s the same behaviour as per norm. The same predictable scaring countering, ifs and maybes. Same old same old
A few pre season kickabouts with B team players making up half the team, and the panic button is getting pressed by many fans. I’m not saying the player pool doesn’t need a few additions, it does but I’m prepared to give Desmond, Lawell, Nicolson and McKay along with BR and Tisdale a wee bit more time, it looks like the winger from Antwerp is on his way, along with the striker Yamada from Japan. We’ve already signed a Swedish International winger/m/fielder while I’m sure a few others are on the way.
The Friendlies against Sporting, Newcastle and the Como tournament will have to be taken a wee bit more seriously before the Kick off on Aug 3rd. The 2nd half of last season was a warning to us, complacency is a danger and a manager with his contract running down, and the Scottish media continually reminding us of the fact, could be an added problem.
Jock Stein was quoted as stating that Celtic always had to be 2 goals better than Rangers FC [1872], as the Officials in Scotland are worth a goal a game to them. The same applies to their successor club, and our board with their financial clout had better make sure that we’re tooled up at the start of every season.
I’ll hang fire until The Monday before The Champions League Qualifier…
And then……..
I just wonder if the board are thinking the buy cheap and sell big strategy has worked well for years, but Brendan’s plea to pay more and sell even bigger, hasn’t proven any more successful. The board may have got together and decided to revert to buying cheaper project players or good prospects.
Celtic have been named as the best run club in the UK, and that doesn’t take into account how successful they’ve been on the park.
The best signings at the club are still those who cost two or three million – Hatate, Maeda etc. So the board could be thinking the likes of Nygren and Yamada could be similar successes. Guys with a lot to prove but without carrying that huge price tag on their backs!